2022 House

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the United States and how the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacts them. The three nations were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are NATO members. The forum, which is free and open to the public, will run from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. eastern time and will be available at https://livestream.com/tavco/balticambassadorconversation — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Last month, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) vetoed redistricting plans that his Republican legislature produced. In a special session last week, legislators deferred to DeSantis and passed his preferred plan. — Under the DeSantis plan, Republicans are likely to emerge with a 20-8 edge in Florida’s delegation, up from their current 16-11 advantage. — We don’t see any of the districts on the new Florida plan as especially competitive, although candidate quality may matter in some districts. The DeSantimander When we last checked in on the redistricting process in the Sunshine State, the heavily

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor of Republicans. — The bulk of these changes either move marginally competitive Republican-held seats to the Safe Republican category or move Democratic districts from Likely Democratic to the more competitive Leans Democratic column. — Republicans remain strong favorites to win the House majority, and with redistricting nearly complete, we can now offer a more complete assessment of what our ratings suggest for the fall. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Greg Stanton (D, AZ-4) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Julia Brownley (D, CA-26) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Sanford Bishop (D, GA-2) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic IL-13 Open (Davis, R) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Bill Huizenga (R, MI-4) Likely Republican Safe Republican Richard Hudson (R, NC-9) Likely Republican Safe Republican Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Leans Democratic Toss-up Antonio Delgado (D, NY-19) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Likely Republican Safe Republican Tony Gonzales (R, TX-23) Likely Republican Safe Republican House rating changes The release of 2022’s first quarter campaign finance reports, which came out a few

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of “crossover” districts — those won by different parties for president and House — has generally been declining over time. — Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats. — Based on the new district lines, and with a few states still outstanding, there are currently 16 incumbents running in districts that their party did not win for president: 11 Republicans in Biden seats and 5 Democrats in Trump seats. — The Democrats may not hold a single Trump district next year, and the Republicans very well could hold many more Biden-won seats. The new “crossover” districts One growing trend in American politics is that fewer and fewer members of the U.S. House hold districts that the other party won for president. There were only 16 districts in 2020 that voted for different parties for president and for U.S. House. There were 9 Republicans who won districts that Joe Biden carried, and there were 7 Democrats that carried districts that Donald Trump carried. This was a historically low number. The total of just 16 crossover

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat. — It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades that has meant simply winning reelection to the job they held prior to being named to a presidential ticket. — If Palin wins, she will set an obscure historical marker for unsuccessful postwar VP nominees. Putting Palin’s House bid into historical context We, like many others, were surprised by news that broke Friday evening: Sarah Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee and a former governor of Alaska, is running to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R, AK-AL) in the U.S. House. Despite becoming one of the most famous and polarizing politicians in America thanks to her position as John McCain’s running mate, Palin has not sought office in the nearly decade and a half since that contest. Palin flirted with running for president and, more recently, she expressed some interest in challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who has problems on her right as she seeks reelection this year.

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Ohio: Republicans still have a chance to win all but 2 seats We noted last week that the Ohio Supreme Court has scheduled arguments for the ongoing challenge to the state’s congressional map that take the challenge beyond the state’s May 3 primary date, meaning that the challenge is unlikely to be resolved in time for the 2022 elections. Unless something changes, we (and others) are treating Ohio’s congressional map as final, at least for 2022. This is a disappointment for Democrats, as the map that appears likely to be in place for November is still drawn to favor Republicans. The state’s new redistricting process did not really prompt the creation of a balanced map. However, the new process — and, more importantly, the state court’s decision to attempt to enforce the provisions approved by voters that aimed to create a fairer redistricting system — did give Democrats a better chance to win more than 2 seats compared to what would have happened had the new rules not been in place, because it is not

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states — FL, LA, MO, NH, and OH — have yet to enact congressional maps. — While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states should boost the Republican tally. — Despite GOP hegemony in Florida and Ohio, the situations in both states have been especially messy. Ohio Republicans are constrained by new voter-approved redistricting rules and a state Supreme Court that appears determined to enforce them, while Florida’s governor and legislature are not on the same page. The nation’s outstanding redistricting business With the 2022 primary season already underway, the vast majority of states have passed their new congressional maps. However, while the lines have been finalized in 39 of the 44 states that have more than a single district, some of the remaining states are large — in fact, the composition of their delegations could decide control of the House. The Crystal Ball favors Democrats in 185 of the seats that have been drawn, to 169 for Republicans (22 districts are Toss-ups). But the 5 states that have yet to produce maps account for a sizeable 59

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Wisconsin Supreme Court sided with state Democrats on a new congressional map, but the map does not change much. — Republicans are favored to win 6 of the state’s 8 seats this year. Rating the new Wisconsin map In Wisconsin, a closely divided state known for fierce partisan battles, it was no surprise when Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed the redistricting maps that his Republican legislature drafted. In a manner similar to the Pennsylvania situation that we covered last week, the process wound up in the state Supreme Court. Despite their different partisan compositions — Democrats control Pennsylvania’s court while Republican-aligned judges hold a majority in Wisconsin’s — both essentially arrived at the same conclusion: They chose minimal change maps. In Wisconsin’s case, Evers submitted a plan to the court that made relatively minor changes to the state’s 8 districts, vis-à-vis the legislature’s plan, which featured more territorial turnover. The court’s 3 Democratic-aligned justices and 1 of the 4 Republican-aligned justices selected Evers’ plan because they argued it made the least amount of change to the current map, which was a Republican gerrymander created a decade ago. So even though Democrats “won” this

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts. — Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only be in place for the 2022 election cycle. — As we expected, a GOP-held seat was eliminated as Pennsylvania’s delegation was forced to downsize, but some of its Democratic members, particularly in the eastern part of the state, will have their work cut out for them. New maps in 2 competitive states North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 of the handful of most competitive states in the nation. Each has a high-profile open-seat Senate race this year and were roughly mirror opposites for president in 2020, with Joe Biden winning Pennsylvania by about 1.2 points and Donald Trump winning North Carolina by about 1.4 points. Following court intervention in each state, both states finalized their congressional maps last week (barring U.S. Supreme Court intervention, which Republicans in both states are seeking). The new political geography of each of these states merits a close look. North Carolina settles on a (pretty fair) 2-year

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, will discuss the latest developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the response by the United States and its allies with Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis, and Prof. Jeff Rossman, Director of the UVA Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies. You can watch the panel on Friday here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Based on presidential voting patterns, a much larger proportion of U.S. House districts strongly favor one party and a much smaller proportion are closely divided than 50 years ago. — However, gerrymandering is not the major reason for this trend. Partisan polarization has increased dramatically in U.S. states and counties, whose boundaries have not changed. — Moreover, despite the growing partisan divide evident in presidential voting, the competitiveness of House elections has changed very little over the past 5 decades because

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Four more states finalized their House maps over the past week or so, bringing the total number of states with completed congressional maps to 41. — Maps in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Washington did not change much at all, while Kansas Republicans targeted the state’s lone Democrat in their redraw. — Democrats hold a trio of single-digit Biden seats in these states — KS-3, MN-2, and WA-8 — that seem likely to emerge as top bellwether seats this cycle. Rating new maps in CT, KS, MN, WA Over the past week or so, congressional maps have been finalized in 4 additional states: Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and Washington. This group of states features 3 swing districts — KS-3, MN-2, and WA-8 — that Democrats flipped in their 2018 wave but now must defend in their own challenging midterm environment, and all 3 Democratic incumbents may face a rematch with their 2020 GOP challengers. Redistricting hardly changed composition of 2 of those districts, but Republicans attempted to ease their path in the third. But let’s first start in Connecticut, where Democrats have not lost a House race since 2006. After a panel of legislators found themselves at an impasse, the process