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2022 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Where People Voted in 2022 — and Where They Didn’t

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. — In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout district (NY-15 in New York City) and the highest-turnout one (MI-1 in northern Michigan). — Republicans won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the most votes (300,000 or more) while Democrats won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the fewest (less than 200,000). The huge differences in House turnout Over the years, voter turnout has often been measured in percentage terms — such as percentage of voting-age population (all U.S. residents 18 years of age and older), percentage of voting-eligible population (U.S. citizens only of legal age and who are eligible to vote), and percentage of registered voters. But this look at voter turnout in 2022 takes a different tack. The measurement used here is the total number of ballots cast for the House of Representatives by congressional district (minus blank and void ballots). The U.S. House was the only office contested in 2022 in all 50 states.

Rhodes Cook

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. 1. 2022 was another change election – but with an asterisk In his introductory chapter, Crystal Ball Editor-in-Chief Larry J. Sabato put 2022 into historical context: In the last sixteen years, 2006 to 2022, every election but one has been a change election. After a dozen years of GOP control in the House, Democrats took over Congress in 2006, then Barack Obama swept to power in 2008, ending GOP control of the White House. A backlash to Obama led to a GOP landslide for the House in 2010, and Republicans completed their takeover of Congress by capturing the Senate in 2014. Two years later, Donald Trump shocked the world in a repudiation of both Obama and his

UVA Center for Politics

NOW AVAILABLE: The Red Ripple Tells the Story of the 2022 Midterm and Looks Ahead to 2024

The Center for Politics’s latest book — The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 — is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, The Red Ripple brings together top political journalists, analysts, and academics to examine every facet of the 2022 election and what the results will mean for the nation moving forward. Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. Chapters and contributors are: 1. Another Confounding Election, Larry J. Sabato 2. Donald Trump and the Vanishing Red Wave, Alan Abramowitz 3. 2022 Primaries: Setting the Table for November, Rhodes Cook 4. Not Much but Good Enough: The GOP’s House Takeover, Kyle Kondik 5. The Senate: Sticking with the Devils They Know, J. Miles Coleman 6. Governors and State Legislatures, Mary Frances McGowan 7. The Red Ripple of Election Denialism, Carah Ong Whaley 8. A Year of High Turnout, New Rules, and Changes

UVA Center for Politics

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece — on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections — is below. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An analysis of 552 Republican candidates running for Senate, House of Representatives, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general in the 2022 elections shows that close to half (221 candidates) who made statements on a spectrum from those who accepted the 2020 election outcome with reservations to those who fully denied the results won in 2022. — Candidates who fully denied the 2020 election didn’t have all that much trouble raising funds. Nearly $500 million was raised by 192 candidates who fully denied results compared to about $515 million raised by those who ran in opposition. — While the good news is that surveys show the majority of Americans are confident their votes will be accurately cast and counted, confidence is at historic lows and there is a partisan divide. — The extent to which unfounded claims of election fraud

Carah Ong Whaley

The New Crossover Members of the House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. — There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats. — Democrats used to win more crossover districts, but Republicans have now won more in 6 of the last 7 elections as the overall number of crossover districts has generally declined. — It is common for the opposition party in Congress to add to their roster of crossover districts in a midterm, and that’s exactly what happened in 2022, despite Republicans having a disappointing election overall. The House’s new “crossover” list With vote counts near final across the country, it appears that Republicans are on track for a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House, a mirror image of the small majority that Democrats won in 2020. When a party wins such a small House edge, there are all sorts of factors that one can reasonably argue was crucial to the outcome. One of those, undoubtedly, was the Republicans’ superior ability to win districts that did not

Kyle Kondik

Looking Back at the 2022 Projections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. — In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans than the Democrats. — In a political world where “lol, nothing matters” seemed to be a safe assumption in recent years, it appears that a lot of things did matter — things that should matter. How we assessed 2022 the way we did The day before the 2022 election, HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn tweeted the following: “Feel like I could selectively pull anecdotes and data to make a convincing case for a big election surprise in the D direction — and then do the very same thing for a big election surprise in the R direction.” One of us replied to the tweet, saying the following: “It’s true. I think in the end, a good R election is easier to explain/anticipate (fundamentals) than a good D one.” In a nutshell, this is the best explanation we can offer as to why we thought Republicans would do better in this election than

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. — Read on for details — and caveats. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Republican C. Cortez Masto (D-NV) Toss-up Leans Democratic PA Open (Toomey, R) Leans Democratic Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CA-13 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Mike Levin (D, CA-49) Leans Democratic Leans Republican David Valadao (R, CA-22) Toss-up Leans Republican Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5) Leans Democratic Leans Republican IL-17 Open (Bustos, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-7) Toss-up Leans Republican Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-3 Open (Suozzi, D) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-19 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Steve

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Six Days to Go

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will also be releasing the discussion as an episode of our Politics is Everything podcast. The podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. If you have a question you would like us to answer during our discussion, feel free to email us at [email protected]. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year. — Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts. — A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican FL-23 Open (Deutch,

Kyle Kondik

The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. — A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans. — 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week. — After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16. — We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mike Garcia (R, CA-27) Toss-up Leans Republican Yvette Herrell (R, NM-2) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-22 Open (Katko, R) Toss-up Leans Republican Joe Morelle (D, NY-25) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic OR-5 Open (Schrader, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings The race for the House with 2 weeks to go Way back in January, and

Kyle Kondik

Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think

Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that history up to the present, by looking at what happened from 1986-2018. While the last 4 midterms all can be fairly classified as waves against the White House party, the several elections before that were often more muddled. The recent history provides a frame of reference for whatever happens in 2022, whether it’s a calm election, a ripple, or a wave. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recent midterms have featured a mix of wave elections against the president’s party as well as calmer ones where there was much less change. — The only real wave between 1986 and 2002 was the 1994 election. — The Senate often moves in the same direction as the House, although 2018 was a notable exception, and this year could be as well. Recent midterm history Initially poised to suffer huge losses in the 2022 midterms, Democrats experienced a surge in

Lucca Ruggieri

Upset Alert

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. — That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. — We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s issue, ranging from Senate races in Iowa and Washington to gubernatorial races in New York and Oklahoma. — Most sleeper races will not feature an upset come Election Day, but some may under the right set of circumstances. — We are making several rating changes to our Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Safe Republican Likely Republican Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating MT-1 Open (No inc.) Likely Republican Leans Republican NY-4 Open (Rice, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Annie Kuster (D, NH-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA-12 Open (Doyle, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 3: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Kathy Hochul (D-NY) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Where to watch for upsets With 3 weeks to go until

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Four Weeks to Go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Leans Republican Toss-up RI-2 Open (Langevin, D) Leans Democratic Toss-up WI-3 Open (Kind, D) Leans Republican Likely Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Jared Polis (D-CO) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tim Walz (D-MN) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Kevin Stitt (R-OK) Safe Republican Likely Republican The Senate Probably the biggest recent news in the Senate has come in Georgia, where the campaign of former NFL star Herschel Walker (R) was rocked by reporting that the anti-abortion candidate had paid for an abortion for a girlfriend. The report fits in with broader questions that Walker has faced about his personal and professional background. But it’s unclear whether the story has changed the race in any enduring way. Walker’s travails illustrate a larger question about 2022: Senate Republicans are running a weak crop of candidates in an era where candidate quality

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The 2022 Ad Wars

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. — Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, with Democrats trying to inoculate themselves by featuring law enforcement officers in their ads. — Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are frequently cited in Republican attack ads, but other politicians make cameos in ads not directly related to their states/districts. How the ads frame 2022 The next time you, dear reader, and your family decide to sit down for a movie night, just consider this: A typical movie might be about 2 hours long. That’s 120 minutes. So in the time it takes you to watch, say, the first modern Spider-Man movie, (almost exactly 2 hours long), you all could instead watch — get this — 240 separate 30-second political ads! Sounds appealing, right? OK, guess not. But because we want our readers to be on top of what’s going on in the campaigns, and because we are curious about what the various campaigns and

Kyle Kondik

House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. — Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies. — The changes keep our overall House rating picture the same: 215 seats at least lean to the Republicans, 196 at least lean to the Democrats, and there are still 24 Toss-ups. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Toss-up Leans Democratic TX-34 (Gonzalez/Flores) Leans Democratic Toss-up RGV vs RCV In 2020, Democrats didn’t win any House districts that Donald Trump carried by a double-digit margin. That same year, House Republicans won a few double-digit Joe Biden seats, but the bluest of those was Biden +11. Yet, in today’s update, we are moving a Trump +10 seat from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and we’re moving a seat that Biden carried by nearly 16 points from Leans Democratic into the Toss-up category. How can that be? Well, put very simply, one letter can change a lot: RGV vs RCV. The location of one of these districts

J. Miles Coleman

Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. — So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly more defense than Republicans. — The vast majority of the districts we rate as the most competitive — those in the Toss-up or Leans categories — have seen at least some outside spending so far. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Jim Costa (D, CA-21) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic NC-14 Open (No inc.) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9) Toss-up Leans Democratic OR-4 Open (DeFazio, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic OR-6 Open (No inc.) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Outside House spending (so far) We’re often asked how we formulate our race ratings. Of course polls are a part of it, but that can’t just be the only part of it — and it’s more our interpretation of the polls as opposed to what they exactly say. History and recent

Kyle Kondik