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2022 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. 1. 2022 was another change election – but with an asterisk In his introductory chapter, Crystal Ball Editor-in-Chief Larry J. Sabato put 2022 into historical context: In the last sixteen years, 2006 to 2022, every election but one has been a change election. After a dozen years of GOP control in the House, Democrats took over Congress in 2006, then Barack Obama swept to power in 2008, ending GOP control of the White House. A backlash to Obama led to a GOP landslide for the House in 2010, and Republicans completed their takeover of Congress by capturing the Senate in 2014. Two years later, Donald Trump shocked the world in a repudiation of both Obama and his

UVA Center for Politics

NOW AVAILABLE: The Red Ripple Tells the Story of the 2022 Midterm and Looks Ahead to 2024

The Center for Politics’s latest book — The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 — is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, The Red Ripple brings together top political journalists, analysts, and academics to examine every facet of the 2022 election and what the results will mean for the nation moving forward. Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. Chapters and contributors are: 1. Another Confounding Election, Larry J. Sabato 2. Donald Trump and the Vanishing Red Wave, Alan Abramowitz 3. 2022 Primaries: Setting the Table for November, Rhodes Cook 4. Not Much but Good Enough: The GOP’s House Takeover, Kyle Kondik 5. The Senate: Sticking with the Devils They Know, J. Miles Coleman 6. Governors and State Legislatures, Mary Frances McGowan 7. The Red Ripple of Election Denialism, Carah Ong Whaley 8. A Year of High Turnout, New Rules, and Changes

UVA Center for Politics

Notes on the State of North Carolina

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events of Jan. 6, 2021 as experienced by officers on the frontline. The event will feature a discussion with several of those officers and will be held at the UVA Rotunda Dome Room. To register to attend, either in-person or virtually, visit Eventbrite. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As with other states across the South and the nation, Black turnout last month was not as strong as Democrats would have liked. — This was seen in North Carolina, where Republicans, as has usually been the case for the last few decades, narrowly came out on the winning side of a Senate race. — Still, last month’s result may send mixed messages for the parties going forward. — Democrats are strong favorites to win the VA-4 special election and are voting on a nominee today. North Carolina in recent midterms While Democrats broadly overperformed expectations in last month’s

J. Miles Coleman

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece — on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections — is below. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An analysis of 552 Republican candidates running for Senate, House of Representatives, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general in the 2022 elections shows that close to half (221 candidates) who made statements on a spectrum from those who accepted the 2020 election outcome with reservations to those who fully denied the results won in 2022. — Candidates who fully denied the 2020 election didn’t have all that much trouble raising funds. Nearly $500 million was raised by 192 candidates who fully denied results compared to about $515 million raised by those who ran in opposition. — While the good news is that surveys show the majority of Americans are confident their votes will be accurately cast and counted, confidence is at historic lows and there is a partisan divide. — The extent to which unfounded claims of election fraud

Carah Ong Whaley

Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic

Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If you can’t tune in live, we’ll release the Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast, which is available on major podcast providers. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Georgia’s Senate runoff moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on the eve of tomorrow’s election. — Herschel Walker (R) needs a big Election Day showing to overcome what should be a decent-sized lead for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the early vote. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Democratic Previewing the Georgia runoff It’s probably fair to say that Georgia has been one of the more Trump-averse states. In 2016, the Peach State was one of only 8 states where then-candidate Donald Trump underperformed the late John McCain’s percentage margin from 8 years earlier. When Trump was up for reelection, he became the first Republican presidential nominee

J. Miles Coleman

2022’s Split Ticket States

Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election. Participants include: CBS News Face the Nation Moderator and Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Margaret Brennan;  New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman; Former U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent and Co-Anchor of This Week with George Stephanopoulos Jonathan Karl; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik; Former Virginia state Del. David Ramadan (R); and political communications veteran and commentator Tara Setmayer — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Among states that are finished voting this year, 5 chose candidates of different parties between their Senate and gubernatorial elections. This number is roughly in line with recent midterms. — Georgia is headed to a runoff, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Brian Kemp (R-GA) placed first in their respective races this month. — Arizona came close to splitting its ticket, but ultimately voted for 2 Democrats. There

J. Miles Coleman

Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle

Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to express our deepest condolences over the murder of 3 UVA students — Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry — and the wounding of 2 others earlier this week. We also appreciate the many expressions of sympathy we have received from readers over the past several days. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense. — The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51. — But the primary importance of the runoff is electoral: Democrats could really use an extra buffer seat as they try to hang on in a couple of years. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Leans Republican Toss-up The 2024 Senate election season starts now Democrats clinching at least a 50-50 Senate majority over the weekend seemed to take the steam out of the looming Georgia Senate runoff. But that race remains vitally important — not just

Kyle Kondik

Looking Back at the 2022 Projections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. — In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans than the Democrats. — In a political world where “lol, nothing matters” seemed to be a safe assumption in recent years, it appears that a lot of things did matter — things that should matter. How we assessed 2022 the way we did The day before the 2022 election, HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn tweeted the following: “Feel like I could selectively pull anecdotes and data to make a convincing case for a big election surprise in the D direction — and then do the very same thing for a big election surprise in the R direction.” One of us replied to the tweet, saying the following: “It’s true. I think in the end, a good R election is easier to explain/anticipate (fundamentals) than a good D one.” In a nutshell, this is the best explanation we can offer as to why we thought Republicans would do better in this election than

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. — Read on for details — and caveats. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Republican C. Cortez Masto (D-NV) Toss-up Leans Democratic PA Open (Toomey, R) Leans Democratic Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CA-13 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Mike Levin (D, CA-49) Leans Democratic Leans Republican David Valadao (R, CA-22) Toss-up Leans Republican Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5) Leans Democratic Leans Republican IL-17 Open (Bustos, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-7) Toss-up Leans Republican Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-3 Open (Suozzi, D) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-19 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Steve

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Six Days to Go

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will also be releasing the discussion as an episode of our Politics is Everything podcast. The podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. If you have a question you would like us to answer during our discussion, feel free to email us at [email protected]. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year. — Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts. — A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican FL-23 Open (Deutch,

Kyle Kondik

The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. — Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. — Democrats should be more worried about the races we have rated Leans Democratic than Republicans should be worried about those that we have rated Leans Republican. — As the 2022 battle for the Senate winds down, it is worth noting the 2024 Senate map, which gives the Republicans many opportunities to play offense and Democrats hardly any. The state of the Senate races With just under 2 weeks to go to Election Day 2022, we figured it would be worth surveying the race for control of the Senate — on the House side, we made several changes yesterday, all in the GOP’s direction. While we aren’t updating any Senate ratings today, some of the top races remain in flux. We’ll start in Pennsylvania. On Tuesday night, the Keystone State was the scene of the most highly anticipated senatorial debate of the cycle: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) faced off against

J. Miles Coleman

The Key to the Senate: Democrats vs. Biden Approval

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. — Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance is consistent with recent history. On average, Democratic Senate incumbents are running 6.4 percentage points ahead of Biden’s current approval rating. — Democrats in 4 open seats previously held by Republicans are currently outperforming President Biden’s job approval by 3.5%. This is the highest an in-party has exceeded the president’s approval rating since at least 2006. — There are obvious signs in the data that GOP candidate quality is hampering their candidates in a number of key Senate races. — At the same time, Biden’s approval is low enough that it may be hard for some Democrats to ultimately get over the finish line. The state of play in the Senate Table 1 includes all polling in states with Senate races with results both for President Biden’s job approval and the current trial heat from mid-August through last weekend. The data in this table contains only polls that have both

Dan Guild

Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think

Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that history up to the present, by looking at what happened from 1986-2018. While the last 4 midterms all can be fairly classified as waves against the White House party, the several elections before that were often more muddled. The recent history provides a frame of reference for whatever happens in 2022, whether it’s a calm election, a ripple, or a wave. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recent midterms have featured a mix of wave elections against the president’s party as well as calmer ones where there was much less change. — The only real wave between 1986 and 2002 was the 1994 election. — The Senate often moves in the same direction as the House, although 2018 was a notable exception, and this year could be as well. Recent midterm history Initially poised to suffer huge losses in the 2022 midterms, Democrats experienced a surge in

Lucca Ruggieri

Upset Alert

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. — That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. — We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s issue, ranging from Senate races in Iowa and Washington to gubernatorial races in New York and Oklahoma. — Most sleeper races will not feature an upset come Election Day, but some may under the right set of circumstances. — We are making several rating changes to our Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Safe Republican Likely Republican Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating MT-1 Open (No inc.) Likely Republican Leans Republican NY-4 Open (Rice, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Annie Kuster (D, NH-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA-12 Open (Doyle, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 3: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Kathy Hochul (D-NY) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Where to watch for upsets With 3 weeks to go until

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Four Weeks to Go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Leans Republican Toss-up RI-2 Open (Langevin, D) Leans Democratic Toss-up WI-3 Open (Kind, D) Leans Republican Likely Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Jared Polis (D-CO) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tim Walz (D-MN) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Kevin Stitt (R-OK) Safe Republican Likely Republican The Senate Probably the biggest recent news in the Senate has come in Georgia, where the campaign of former NFL star Herschel Walker (R) was rocked by reporting that the anti-abortion candidate had paid for an abortion for a girlfriend. The report fits in with broader questions that Walker has faced about his personal and professional background. But it’s unclear whether the story has changed the race in any enduring way. Walker’s travails illustrate a larger question about 2022: Senate Republicans are running a weak crop of candidates in an era where candidate quality

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman