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2022 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021

Dear Readers: Over the years, the Crystal Ball has published periodic articles with the headline “Notes on the State of Politics.” These articles feature shorter, bite-sized observations about elections and politics. As a way to better serve readers, we’re planning on publishing more frequent “Notes on the State of Politics” issues going forward in addition to our regular issues of the Crystal Ball, typically published on Thursday mornings. Look for future Notes issues on Tuesdays or Wednesdays (the pace of news, election schedules, and other factors will help dictate when we publish). The title of this recurring series of Crystal Ball articles pays tribute to University of Virginia founder Thomas Jefferson, who wrote a book on his birthplace and home titled Notes on the State of Virginia, the prolific writer’s only full-length book. — The Editors Stivers’ resignation sets up another House special election Another prominent establishment-oriented Republican is leaving the U.S. House of Representatives. Rep. Steve Stivers (R, OH-15), a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, announced Monday that he is resigning in mid-May to become the president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Stivers appeared to be gearing up to run for the state’s open U.S.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again)

Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions, where we’ll examine the current divisions within the Democratic and Republican parties. The Center’s panelists will include Resident Scholars Jamelle Bouie, Chris Krebs, and Tara Setmayer. We are also excited to welcome David Ramadan, the first adult immigrant ever elected to the Virginia General Assembly. Registration for this free virtual event is at this link. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the second impeachment trial of his presidency, former President Donald Trump was acquitted by the Senate. Seven Republicans joined 50 Democrats in voting to convict Trump. — The sole Republican running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict Trump was Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) — she has a reputation as a political maverick. — Democrats will be targeting a few open-seat contests next year in the Senate, specifically North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where retiring Republicans have been censured by their local parties. — For

J. Miles Coleman

2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities — though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. — Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third term, but even with his retirement, Ohio’s rightward lean makes it an uphill climb for Democrats. — Democrats’ clearest path to gaining seats runs primarily though the Rust Belt, as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to be their top offensive races, though they may finally get lucky in North Carolina. — We rate four states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — as Leans Democratic, and these seem to be the most obvious GOP targets. — There will likely be more retirements this cycle, but they probably won’t change the fundamental picture. Another first-term Democratic Class III midterm A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went on to claim a 50-50 majority in the chamber, via Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.

J. Miles Coleman

Senate 2022: An Early Look

Dear Readers: Our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and at this direct link. It features New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, CNN commentator Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist John Lapp discussing Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race, disappointing results for Democrats down the ballot, and more. Also, make sure you watch Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato’s interview with Christopher Krebs, a UVA alum who served as the director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Despite bipartisan praise for Krebs’ performance, President Trump fired Krebs on Tuesday night. The Crystal Ball will be off next week for Thanksgiving. We wish you all a pleasant and — especially this year — safe holiday. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats may have a better chance of winning the Senate in 2022 than holding the House, even if Democrats lose both Georgia special elections in January. — The president’s party often struggles in midterms, which gives the GOP a generic advantage in the battle for Congress. — The Republicans’ three most vulnerable Senate seats may all be open in 2022. Our (very early) Senate assessment Here’s

Kyle Kondik