A Trump Bump for Vance
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. — Both the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate races remain rated Likely Republican for the general election. The Vance victory What is a Donald Trump endorsement worth to a Republican candidate in a major race? To J.D. Vance, the author and newly-minted Republican Senate nominee in Ohio, it probably was the difference between winning and not winning, although the effect is hard to quantify with the limited information we have. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a respected Republican firm polling for a pro-Vance outside group, released a poll in March showing Vance tied at 18% with businessman Mike Gibbons and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the primary. This was before the Trump endorsement. A few days after the endorsement (mid-April), the firm put out another poll, showing Vance up to 25% and leading. A week later, the firm had Vance up to 31%, almost identical to the 32% he received. Using this set of polls, you could