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2022 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Trump Bump for Vance

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. — Both the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate races remain rated Likely Republican for the general election. The Vance victory What is a Donald Trump endorsement worth to a Republican candidate in a major race? To J.D. Vance, the author and newly-minted Republican Senate nominee in Ohio, it probably was the difference between winning and not winning, although the effect is hard to quantify with the limited information we have. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a respected Republican firm polling for a pro-Vance outside group, released a poll in March showing Vance tied at 18% with businessman Mike Gibbons and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the primary. This was before the Trump endorsement. A few days after the endorsement (mid-April), the firm put out another poll, showing Vance up to 25% and leading. A week later, the firm had Vance up to 31%, almost identical to the 32% he received. Using this set of polls, you could

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Dear Readers: In light of a recent Politico article that features a leaked majority draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision, we are re-running a March article from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Lou Jacobson. We have made some minor updates to the article to account for a few new developments. In this, Lou looks at how the court’s ultimate decision may impact some key elections this year. Lou also has a similar piece out in PolitiFact, where he surveys existing abortion laws across the country. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If the Supreme Court is indeed set to overturn Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the party controlling the White House, particularly if concern about the coronavirus pandemic and inflation remains high. — Our analysis suggests that 7 states are the likeliest to experience political tensions over abortion, because they have majorities or pluralities of voters who favor abortion rights but have GOP-led legislatures who may feel driven to restrict abortion access if the Supreme

Louis Jacobson

Notes on the State of the Senate

The small stuff versus the big stuff There is a push and pull in the race for control of the U.S. Senate between the big picture electoral environment, which clearly benefits Republicans, and the day-to-day developments on the campaign trail, which do not always clearly benefit Republicans. Examples of the latter include, but are not limited to, the following over the past few months: — National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott’s (R-FL) rollout of his own political agenda, which includes some items (like suggesting that poorer Americans who don’t currently pay income tax pay it) that other national party leaders don’t want to deal with in the midterm. — Fundraising dominance displayed by the 3 most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents: Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). — Donald Trump wading into primaries and endorsing candidates who may not be the party’s best choice for the general election, such as television doctor Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania. It’s easy to get caught up in these various developments — after all, these are some of the most newsworthy things that have happened in the race for the Senate recently. And there certainly is a world

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. — President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.” — Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is very likely to be smaller than in some past GOP wave years simply because the Democratic majority is already so small. — The composition of this year’s Senate map gives the Democrats a fighting chance to hold their majority there. Does a Democratic “shellacking” loom? One of the most regular patterns in American politics is the tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections. The president’s party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterms and Senate seats in 13 of 19 midterms since World War II. Across all 19 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of about 27 seats in the House and roughly 3.5 seats in the Senate. While midterm elections rarely bring good news for the occupant of the White House, the magnitude of the losses suffered by the president’s party can

Alan I. Abramowitz

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the first primary of 2022, in Texas, is now in the books, but that’s not actually the case. Votes are still being counted, and Texas also has a primary runoff system that requires winning candidates to receive a majority of the vote in order to win outright. A number of key races were easily decided. Though Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) had a few primary challengers, we noted last year that he would be hard to defeat — he carried every county last night. On the Democratic side, 2018 Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke (D) won the gubernatorial nomination with over 90% of the vote. But many others will be going to runoffs, which won’t be held until May 24. That includes the race for the Republican nomination for attorney general, where embattled and Donald Trump-backed incumbent Ken Paxton (R) will face state Land Commissioner George P. Bush (R), son of former Florida Gov.

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While the action in swing states — and districts — usually soaks up much of the attention, one of the telltale signs of a wave is that areas that are normally secure for one side start to feel less so. This year, Washington state, as was the case there in 2010, may be falling into the latter category. Last week, a poll from Public Policy Polling that was done for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) up by a 50%-41% margin over her likely general election opponent, Republican Tiffany Smiley. Perhaps significantly, while Murray has hovered around 50% in their last few surveys, Smiley gained 4 points since the group’s November poll, pushing the race into single-digit territory. As we explored earlier this month, Washington state — which Joe Biden carried by 19 points in 2020 — is quite an uphill climb for Republicans. But even before PPP’s

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides see as prime Republican targets: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Given Biden’s poor numbers and the usual problems the presidential party has in midterms, Republicans have a prime opportunity to flip 1 or more of these Democratic-held Senate seats. For instance, a couple of polls last week showed Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) slightly behind his likely opponent, former football star Herschel Walker (R). Beyond these states, there has been some Republican activity worth noting in some of the dark blue states the Democrats are defending. In Washington state, veterans advocate and first-time candidate Tiffany Smiley (R) raised a bit over $900,000 last quarter in her bid to unseat Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). In Connecticut, former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides (R) switched from the governor’s race to the Senate race against Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), paving the way for businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) to seek a rematch against first-term

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

New Hampshire: The Fallout from Sununu’s Choice

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. — Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Chris Sununu (R-NH) Leans Republican Safe Republican The Sununu fallout Republicans basking in the afterglow of their strong election showings last week got a rare piece of bad political news Tuesday morning, when Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) — arguably the party’s most important Senate recruit — surprisingly decided not to challenge first-term Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in next year’s Senate election. WMUR reported later on Tuesday that national Republicans’ likely second choice for the nomination, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), also was not going to run. Ayotte lost to Hassan by just 1,017 votes in 2016. Additionally, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) has also indicated he isn’t likely to run. Brown, who credibly challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2014 after losing his reelection bid to now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in 2012, said his family’s focus is on

Kyle Kondik

Republican Sweep in Virginia Sets off Alarm Bells for Democrats

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 4, from 6:30 p.m.* to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by discussions on the state of politics moderated by Carah Whaley, Assistant Director of the James Madison Center for Civic Engagement, and featuring UVA Center for Politics resident scholars Jamelle Bouie, David Ramadan, and Tara Setmayer; former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); and Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik. The free, virtual event will be available at this link: https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-adc2021 *The start time is now 6:30 p.m., not 6 p.m. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans swept Virginia on Tuesday night, winning statewide for the first time in a dozen years and running much better than they did in the Trump years. — The result helps confirm a poor environment for Democrats, which if replicated next November could help the Republicans win back the House and the Senate. — As such, we’re changing several Senate ratings to reflect improved odds of Republicans flipping that chamber next year.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, and his new book, The Power of Giving Away Power: How the Best Leaders Learn to Let Go. Andria McClellan, a member of the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ advisory board and a member of the Norfolk City Council, will interview Barzun following introductory remarks from Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato. To watch tonight, just click the following link: https://livestream.com/tavco/powerofgivingawaypower Below, Crystal Ball contributor Lakshya Jain looks at how the makeup of the electorate changes from presidential years to midterms, a shift that offers both opportunities and liabilities for Democrats. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates. — At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats,

Lakshya Jain

Notes on the State of Politics: July 14, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we’re happy to once again welcome one of our interns, Parakram Karnik, who wrote the first item below, on some of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) problems with Republicans. We think it’s a little premature to count out Murkowski, but Parakram makes a compelling argument that she is in more trouble than is perhaps commonly thought. — The Editors An uphill fight for Murkowski? Over the weekend, the Alaska Republican State Central Committee endorsed former Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka over three-term incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Tshibaka, more notably, is also backed by former President Donald Trump. Alaska does have a new election system that could hypothetically help Murkowski, but the lack of official support from her fellow Republican leaders may very well reflect a lack of support from rank-and-file Republicans in Alaska, too. A poll from Change Research conducted in late May shows that 59% of likely voters in Alaska have an unfavorable view of Murkowski while only 26% view her favorably. A small 6% of Alaska Republicans hold a favorable view of the senator while

Parakram Karnik and Kyle Kondik

Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot

Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free at https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalballjune2021. To submit a question for today’s webinar, tweet with the hashtag #AskSabato or email us at [email protected]. We will try to get to as many questions as possible. The webinar is part of the UVA Alumni Association’s Reunions Remixed, which is being held virtually June 9-12. See here for more information on Reunions Remixed. You do not need to sign up for Reunions Remixed to watch today’s Crystal Ball webinar. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz presents his model for the 2022 midterm House and Senate races, which is informed by House generic ballot polling and the number of seats each side is defending next year. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. — The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the

Alan I. Abramowitz

The Senate: Sununu’s Vital Choice

Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as an elder statesman — the kind of elected official that seems so hard to find in modern politics. Warner’s first election to the Senate came after the death of Richard Obenshain, one of the most influential figures in the rise of the modern Republican Party in Virginia. Obenshain defeated Warner and others to win the 1978 Republican Senate nomination at a convention, but then died in a plane crash during the general election campaign. Warner replaced him on the ballot and won a narrow victory in November 1978. Following that initial victory, Warner generally won easily for the rest of his career with the exception of 1996, when another Warner — Mark, no relation — held him to a five-point victory. Mark Warner later became governor and succeeded John Warner in the Senate, and the elder Warner would later endorse Mark Warner (and some other Democrats) during his retirement. John

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take looming redistricting into account, painted a relatively bleak picture for Democrats. We rated 19 Democratic seats as Toss-ups if no district lines changed, and just two Republican ones. Republicans need to net just five additional seats to win the House next year. However, there is at least one reason to think Democrats could be able to limit their losses next year or even hold on to the majority: The Democrats are not that overextended into hostile, Republican territory. Despite not holding the majority, Republicans hold more seats in districts that Joe Biden won, nine, than Democrats hold in districts Donald Trump won, seven. And three of the seven Trump-district Democrats — Reps. Cindy Axne (D, IA-3), Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-8), and Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) — hold seats that Trump won by less than a point apiece. The most Republican-leaning seat based on the 2020 presidential results won by any

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Senate’s Long-Term Equilibrium Could Shape Democratic Decisions on the Filibuster

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A majority of states are now either solidly Republican or solidly Democratic on the presidential level, and the party a state prefers for president increasingly has a big edge in winning the state’s two Senate seats. Given these patterns, it’s possible to game out the basic contours of what the Senate “should” look like in the near future, barring some unexpected upheaval. — Allocating Senate seats based on current presidential preferences produces an equilibrium of about 53 seats for the Republicans and 47 seats for the Democrats. — This complicates the Democrats’ decision on whether to ditch the filibuster, because in a chamber where they may end up spending a lot of time in the minority in the future, ending the filibuster may destroy one of the few points of leverage the party would have. The generic Republican edge in the Senate With their party in control of the White House and the House, Democrats have been chafing at their bare majority in the Senate, currently a 50-50 tie that can be broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Given the party’s ambitious agenda — from infrastructure and safety-net spending to election and policing legislation

Louis Jacobson