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2024 President

Sabato's Crystal Ball

An Electoral College Time Capsule

The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably. As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same. Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century.

Kyle Kondik

Making Sense of Arizona’s New Electoral Landscape

Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in nearly all cases. Democrats may be poised to ride the backlash in this swing state, as some local Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the ruling. Meanwhile, the Nebraska legislature's debate over its electoral vote allocation could further elevate Arizona's importance in the Electoral College.

J. Miles Coleman

Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup

Some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens. The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls.

Kyle Kondik

Black Voters and the 2024 Presidential Election: A Breakthrough for Trump?

Part of former President Trump's relatively strong polling against President Biden in both national and state polls is surprisingly robust support from Black voters. However, the Black vote has been overwhelmingly Democratic in presidential elections for more than a half century, and there has been little sign of major improvement for Republicans in recent elections.

Alan I. Abramowitz

The Republican Veepstakes 2024, Part Two: What History Suggests About Trump’s Options

Although many factors affect the pool of available vice presidential candidates, the two primary filters relate to party identification and past governmental experience. In particular, major party presidential nominees invariably choose a running mate who shares their party identification and who presently holds or previously held a small group of high governmental offices signifying political experience. These are discussed below in turn.

Joel K. Goldstein

The Republican Veepstakes, Part One: Picking an Apprentice, Donald Trump’s Way

Following Super Tuesday and with both President Biden and former President Trump effectively set to be their respective party’s presidential nominee, we thought it was a good time to look ahead to one of the big political questions of the next several months: Who will Trump pick as his running mate? There is no one better to analyze Trump’s vice presidential choice than Joel Goldstein, a longtime Crystal Ball contributor and a leading expert on the presidential ticket’s second slot. In Part One of a two-part series, Joel goes over how the selection process has evolved, the early movement in this year’s GOP Veepstakes, and the lessons we may be able to draw from Trump’s selection of Mike Pence.

Joel K. Goldstein

Running Out the Clock When Time is of the Essence

Donald J. Trump, who has effectively wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination, faces 91 felony counts and is charged with numerous crimes ranging from allegations that he tried to subvert elections, illegally hoarded classified documents, and falsified business records with a hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. In this article, we provide an update on where the trials stand, what we know about public opinion, and the implications for the 2024 presidential election.

Carah Ong Whaley

What Stood Out from Super Tuesday

It turns out that the 2024 presidential primary process will not be historic, at least in this sense: Nikki Haley’s victory in the Washington, D.C. primary over the weekend and then Vermont on Tuesday foreclosed the possibility of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump each sweeping every nominating contest this year, something that has not happened in the modern era.

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024

In the days leading up to the Michigan presidential primary, we must admit to being taken a bit aback at the immense coverage the Democratic contest received. Given all that coverage, we probably don’t need to spend much time setting the scene—some prominent state Democrats and local Arab-American leaders backed a protest “Uncommitted” vote against President Biden in response to his support for Israel in its campaign in Gaza following a Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7. The ongoing conflict has been a political problem for Democrats because the Israeli-Palestinian conflict splits the Democrats in a way that it doesn’t split the Republicans.

Kyle Kondik

A Deeper Dig into the Granite

After looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary for months on end, it can be easy to just quickly move on after it happens. But it may be that the New Hampshire primary ends up being the most competitive presidential nominating contest on either side this year, and we thought it merited taking a closer look at what happened after the dust settled. What follows is an analysis of Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden’s performances in New Hampshire, a look at the turnout, and some thoughts on the ongoing dispute between New Hampshire and national Democrats over the presidential nominating calendar

J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

On its face, Donald Trump’s performance in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night was solid. In a state where the Republican primary electorate has more moderates and independents and is less religious than Iowa—demographic features that made the state much more gettable on paper for Trump’s remaining major rival, Nikki Haley—Trump ended up winning by what is at the moment an 11-point margin. This sets him up well for upcoming contests in states where the electorate should be more favorable to him—most notably, South Carolina, which is Haley’s home state.

Kyle Kondik

A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary

The winnowing of the GOP presidential field both before (Chris Christie) and after (Vivek Ramaswamy) Donald Trump’s big victory in Iowa reduces the field of notable Republican presidential contenders to just three: Trump, along with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire may produce a close finish. This would not be unusual for the Granite State: 3 of the last 6 competitive presidential primaries have been decided by fewer than 10 percentage points (Bernie Sanders edged out Pete Buttigieg in the 2020 Democratic primary, while both Hillary Clinton and John McCain won close victories in 2008). In the event that exit poll analysts declare the Granite State “too close to call,” what information should the savvy election observer seek as returns come in?

Dante Scala

Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

There were no real surprises in Iowa on Monday night, as the kickoff contest of the Republican presidential nominating season unfolded in almost exactly the way that polls suggested. Former President Donald Trump got about half the vote, with the race for a very distant second place coming down to a close contest between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC). According to results as of early Tuesday morning, Trump was at 51%, with DeSantis nabbing second place at 21% and Haley finishing close behind at 19%. The fourth-place finisher, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, got a little under 8% and immediately dropped out. Nobody else got even 1%.

Kyle Kondik

Previewing the Iowa Caucus

There is an old saying that there are “three tickets out of Iowa,” meaning that the traditional kickoff caucus doesn’t necessarily anoint the presidential nominees, but it does serve a purpose in winnowing often-bloated presidential primary fields. As we will discuss below, Iowa does indeed have a spotty record of supporting the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game. — We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms. Assessing the 2024 race Welcome to 2024, the year of a presidential election that feels both sleepy and explosive at the same time. The former feeling stems from a primary season that does not seem all that competitive. Less than two weeks away from the kickoff Republican caucus in Iowa, former President Donald Trump’s position continues to look strong, while President Joe Biden is doing what recent incumbent presidents have done, deterring truly notable opposition as he seeks renomination. The latter feeling comes from the unprecedented specifics of the potential Biden versus Trump rematch, namely Trump’s litany of legal problems—including efforts to keep him off the ballot in certain states based on his role in the events of Jan.

Kyle Kondik