2024 President

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. — The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. — While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020. Top vs. bottom halves, 1996-2020 Among the many things that stand out from a longer-term look at how the nation’s biggest counties vote versus the rest of the country is this: The George W. Bush realignment of 2000 was comparable to the Donald Trump realignment of 2016 in widening the gap between the nation’s two halves. As part of our ongoing series in comparing the “top halves” to the “bottom halves” of both the nation and individual states, we decided to expand our look at the nation to encompass not just the changes between 2012 and 2020 — which we did in Part One of this series — but also the trajectory of the last quarter century, from Bill Clinton’s second victory in 1996 to Joe Biden’s win in 2020. As a reminder, what we are doing

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics. — This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive. — Attacks on Donald Trump by Democrats, liberals, and mainstream media figures and even indictments by federal and state prosecutors on serious criminal charges have only served to reinforce the loyalty of Republican voters to Trump. Negative partisanship buoys Trump Less than six months before voters begin casting ballots in the first presidential caucuses and primaries, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates. According to RealClearPolitics as of Aug. 22, Trump is receiving an average of 55.9% support in national polls of Republican voters compared with 14.6% for his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Moreover, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased in recent months following indictments in multiple jurisdictions for allegedly criminal conduct including his notorious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. What is perhaps even more surprising than Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest is his

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020. — As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican. — This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national presidential margins in 2012 and 2020, the difference between the top and bottom halves expanded about 10 points from 2012 to 2020. — Joe Biden won 126 of the 151 top half counties, while Donald Trump won 2,548 of the remaining 2,960 counties in the bottom half. — Trump’s wins among the top half counties were concentrated among the smaller pieces of that group — Biden won all but one of the nearly 50 counties that cast 500,000 votes or more. Top half vs. bottom half at the national level Earlier this year,

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. — In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. — In the postwar era, the tipping point state has frequently tracked closely with the national popular vote, although in 1948 and 2020, the tipping point state was clearly right of the nation. — The Electoral College is still likelier than not to continue to have a Republican bias in 2024, although it’s not outlandish to imagine a scenario in which there would be a Democratic bias. Tipping point states over the years A little over a month ago, we wrapped up a series that examined the relative “lean” of each state in presidential elections since 2000. One state that we paid special attention to in that series was Wisconsin. In 4 of the previous 6 presidential elections, the Badger State has been decided by less than a percentage point. OK, so Wisconsin is usually a competitive state, which isn’t very surprising — so where’s this going? Well, Wisconsin is also notable because it was the “tipping point” state

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. — Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. — We consider a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — as the likeliest matchup, but not one that is set in stone. A first look at the 2024 Electoral College Democrats start closer to the magic number of 270 electoral votes in our initial Electoral College ratings than Republicans. But with few truly competitive states and a relatively high floor for both parties, our best guess is yet another close and competitive presidential election next year — which, if it happened, would be the sixth such instance in seven elections (with 2008 as the only real outlier). Map 1 shows these initial ratings. We are starting 260 electoral votes worth of states as at least leaning Democratic, and 235 as at least leaning Republican. The four Toss-ups are Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — the three closest states in 2020 — along with Nevada, which has voted Democratic in each of the last four presidential elections but by closer

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome polling expert Natalie Jackson back to the Crystal Ball this week. She explores Donald Trump’s continued strength in the GOP despite a recent indictment. We also urge you to listen to our recent Politics is Everything podcast episode with Natalie, where we discussed Trump, the GOP’s polling requirements for entry into primary debates, and much more. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite a second indictment, Donald Trump remains in a strong position in the GOP presidential primary field. — Trump continues to earn majorities or near-majorities in polls, far outpacing his rivals, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. — Republicans would rather have a nominee they agree with than an electable one. Trump’s strong primary position endures As the Republican presidential primary field fills out and former President Donald Trump confronts a second indictment, an intriguing battle of numbers has emerged among GOP pollsters aligned with Trump and Florida Gov. (and now candidate) Ron DeSantis over whether Trump can win a general election against President Joe Biden. In a column for National Journal a couple of weeks ago, I discussed the

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. — The 2024 Electoral College map will reflect the 2020 census’s reallocation of electoral votes. Using this new map, the GOP will need to flip 34 electoral votes (down from 37) to reach 269. — Using 2020 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Trump had to winning 269 electoral votes. These routes give us a template for how presidential candidates might plan their strategies for next year’s election. — Flipping Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin is likely the GOP’s best chance at winning back the presidency. But there are other viable routes to 269 as well that involve Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. The GOP’s best paths back to the presidency The 2020 presidential election was very close. It might not seem that way looking at Joe Biden’s 306 to 232 Electoral College victory, but if a few votes in a few states had swung differently, Donald Trump

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Nearly 600 days before the election, an early citizen forecast — using voters’ expectations of likely election outcomes rather than vote intentions — estimates an even chance for a Republican or Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election. — However, while citizens estimate that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have about an even shot to emerge victorious, more voters see a pathway for a non-Trump Republican victory than for a non-Biden Democratic victory, indicating a divided and divisive Republican field. How the public forecasts 2024 Although the 2024 U.S. presidential election will not take place for about a year and a half, already speculation mounts with respect to who will win, especially since President Biden has formally announced his candidacy. In terms of scientific methods for forecasting presidential elections, public opinion polls are routinely employed, mostly to survey the vote intention of respondents in national samples. But survey respondents can tell us more than just what they intend to do — they can also tell us what they expect about the upcoming election. The use of vote expectations, as opposed to vote intentions, has come to be called Citizen Forecasting (CF), and this approach

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection. — However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study. — A key bloc of voters who would prefer someone other than Biden or Trump skew conservative, but are also alienated by Trump’s actions around the events of Jan. 6, 2021. 2024’s decisive cross-pressured voters Joe Biden recently announced that he would seek a second term as president in the 2024 election. Biden, who is already the oldest person ever to serve in the White House, will be almost 82 years old on Election Day 2024. He would be 86 at the end of his second term in January 2029. According to recent polling, the large majority of Americans view Biden’s age as a major concern. Beyond concerns about his age, Biden enters the last two years of this first term with an approval rating that has been stuck

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As Joe Biden seeks a second presidential term, his time as vice president shows how the office can be a springboard to the presidency. — Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, is learning that the vice presidency may not be an advantage in seeking a presidential nomination in the anomalous circumstances he experiences. — Biden dumping Vice President Kamala Harris never was a realistic possibility, and despite Biden’s age, the electoral impact of some voters’ misgivings regarding Harris as a possible president has probably been overstated, and her presence may benefit the Democratic ticket. — There may be factors that limit the appeal of the person in the no. 2 slot on the GOP side, whether Donald Trump is renominated or not. The 2024 campaign’s vice presidential angles Like all its predecessors, the 2024 presidential campaign will focus primarily on the competing choices for president. It is already distinctive in that regard, involving, as it does, two announced candidates who are sitting or former presidents, each of whom is a strong contender to win his party’s presidential nomination and advance to the general election. The last time both a sitting president and former president were

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. — In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans. — In the Interior West, Arizona’s Republican lean has been eroding in elections since 2008 — this allowed Biden to carry it in 2020, but Democrats will also have to work to keep neighboring Nevada in their column. Presidential trends in the Midwest and Interior West This week, we’ll continue our look at how each state has leaned in presidential elections since 2000. A couple of weeks ago, we started with the Northeast and Greater South. Today, we’ll consider the Midwest and Interior West. In our final installment, which will be out within the next few weeks, we’ll conclude with the West Coast, as well as some larger observations. As a refresher, when we mention how a state “leans,” we are referring to its deviation from the national popular vote in a given election. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden carried 6 states by less than his popular vote margin