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Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Protect Ya Neck: The 2006 Races for Senate and Governor

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It is time for our first fall update of the 2006 Senate and Governor contests. To the layperson, they are an eternity and fourteen months away. To political junkies, the races are already in full swing, with recruiting season approaching its end in most places and fundraising machines humming everywhere. Enter the Senate (33 Chambers) With an effective lead of 55-45 in the Senate, Republicans continue to have the clear early edge to retain control–especially since they only have to defend 15 of the 33 seats up for election in next year. Yet Katrina, Iraq, gas prices, growing national debt, President Bush’s unpopularity, and other factors might conspire to produce Democratic gains or even a takeover, as wild as that speculation appears today. Before we get into what it would take to do that, let’s first take a look at the Crystal Ball’s current race rankings, by outlook: 2005 Senate Make-up: 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats (Including 1 Ind.) Senate Seats up for election in 2006: 15 Republican, 18 Democratic (Including 1. Ind.) Current Outlook Number of Seats States Solid Republican 9 IN, ME, MO, MS, NV, TX, UT, VA, WY Leans Republican 3 AZ, MT, TN Toss-up 4 MN, OH,

Larry J. Sabato

Hurricane Katrina: Lessons for a Participatory Democracy

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When a national emergency strikes, we can depend on our country to come together and display unparalleled generosity and thoughtfulness. We watch as stories of personal triumphs mix with unimaginable tragedies. Those whose lives have been forever altered turn to friends, communities, congregations and the nation as a whole for help; and those who have been spared search for ways to alleviate the pain of their fellow Americans. In the middle of this tragedy, generosity and eventual triumph, we see an articulation of what it truly means to be an American. As a society that embraces individuality, it can often seem that little binds us together as a collective group. But last week’s events, like those of September 11, 2001, showed that we do share a cultural bond, one that helps us to collectively rise amidst tragedy. The tie that binds Americans as a collective group is our fundamental commitment to and belief in the principles of democracy. With a representative democracy such as ours comes an expectation that our elected leaders will respond to help us in times of need; and when our representatives do not live up to our expectation, we raise our voices to be heard. Politics

Tara Lee Saylor

Storm Clouds over 1600

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Sooner or later, second-term Presidencies go downhill. But George W. Bush’s is going downhill a little too quickly for his comfort. Of the post-World War II Chief Executives, only Richard Nixon’s second term produced a sharper growth in disapproval than Bush’s. Table 1. Second Term Presidential Approval Ratings President Poll Date Approve Disapprove No Opinion Truman September 1949 51 31 16 Eisenhower September 1957 59 23 18 Johnson September 1965 64 25 11 Nixon September 1973 34 56 11 Reagan September 1985 60 30 10 Clinton September 1997 61 28 11 G.W. Bush end of Aug. 2005 45 52 3 The information in the table above is taken from surveys conducted by the Gallup Organization at similar periods in each incumbent’s second term. Not only are the approve/disapprove statistics useful for each president, but the incredibly low “no opinion” number for Bush in comparison to the others is further illustration of the current polarized partisan divide. The figure below charts Bush’s approval rating since his innaguration in 2001, as measured by the Gallup Poll. Figure 1. Bush Approval Ratings, February 2001 to September 2005 It is not hard to see why it has happened this way: Partisan Divisions The 2004

Larry J. Sabato

The Summer Wind in American Politics

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“The summer wind came blowin’ in from across the sea,” as Frank Sinatra famously sang, and clearly the single most significant political development of Summer 2005 has come from abroad. No, not Iraq–there has been no change there in the dismal story of well intentioned plans gone awry, thanks to a vicious, never-ending insurgency. Rather, it’s the London bombings that will have the greatest long-term impact. With no domestic terrorist act in the U.S. since September 11, 2001, the specter of terrorism was beginning to fade a bit from our politics, with more and more Americans believing that Al Qaeda and affiliated groups had lost the capacity to pull off “the big event.” Great Britain is still America’s staunchest ally and, despite ethnic diversity aplenty in the 21st century United States, the U.K. maintains its position as the Mother Country. Most Americans of all ethnic stripes have affection for her. The brutal, deadly attacks in the heart of London have convinced Americans anew that terrorism is here to stay, much as a series of intermittent crises (Berlin, Korea, the U-2 spy plane, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Czechoslovakia and all the rest) after World War II until the fall of the

Larry J. Sabato

The Big Picture for 2006

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Everyone is focused on the Supreme Court now, with good reason, but just below the surface the campaigns of 2006 are heating up. Perhaps 16 of the 33 U.S. Senate contests and 19 of the 36 Governor’s races may be competitive and interesting. Therefore, about half of the big dogs on the ballot are worth following closely. That’s impressive, and far better than election watchers ever get in the U.S. House. Of course, it is highly unlikely that all these contests, or even most of them, will produce party turnovers or incumbent defeats. As we get nearer to Election Day 2006, the number of fiercely competitive races may well decline–unless the public is in a surly mood, as in 1974, 1980 or 1994, when the number of tight races expanded as we approached the election. We won’t know the driving components of public opinion until mid-way through 2006, and we might not recognize a voter tsunami or sixth-year itch, if there is one, until October of 2006. The Crystal Ball has updated our “outlook briefs” for all major Senate and Governor races, and the individual profiles tell the tale so far. Collectively, there is more hope than was earlier justified

Larry J. Sabato

Supreme Questions

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The big story of the moment–there’s always a “big story”–is the pending appointment of Sandra Day O’Connor’s successor to the Supreme Court. While the NBA held its draft last week, the White House is now moving faster than the New York Knicks’ front office to select the best lottery pick for an even more important court. A gusher of interest group reaction and partisan commentary erupted seconds after her announcement on July 1, and the speculation about the “what ifs” was a large part of it. Who will it be? Is there a “slam-dunk” candidate out there? Will Bush choose a “hard-right” candidate or a “mainstream conservative?” Will the Democrats filibuster? And so on. Of course, the answers to these questions matter. Every Justice’s character and ideological inclinations can influence major judicial decisions for decades. This is especially so concerning the replacement for the O’Connor “swing” seat. Yet there are certain immutable elements here. First, Bush almost always plays to his conservative base. It will be a major surprise if he does not do so now, with conservatives having waited many years for the opportunity to change the Court’s direction. The President needs the Right’s backing more than ever, not

Larry J. Sabato

And They’re Off!

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As we have long contended, the open-seat Virginia Governor’s contest has all the makings of a close and competitive election (READ MORE). The June 14th party primaries reinforced that view. Here are the key results for the statewide offices, with 99 percent of precincts reporting: Republican Party – Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Jerry Kilgore 144,064 82.6 George Fitch 30,314 17.4 Democratic Party – Governor Tim Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and did not appear on the primary ballot. Republican Party – Lt. Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Bill Bolling 98,381 57.8 Sean Connaughton 71,746 42.2 Democratic Party – Lt. Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Leslie Byrne 37,797 32.9 Viola Baskerville 29,653 25.8 Chap Petersen 24,886 21.7 Phil Puckett 22,403 19.5 Republican Party – Attorney General Candidate Vote total Percentage Bob McDonnell 109,481 65.4 Steve Baril 57,871 34.6 Democratic Party – Attorney General Creigh Deeds was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and did not appear on the primary ballot. Before putting these results in perspective, let’s emphasize the obvious. These match-ups did not exactly capture the public’s imagination. The turnout was a dreadfully low 6.6 percent of registered voters–and this is with both parties counted together. It doesn’t

Larry J. Sabato

They Just Don’t Make ‘Em Like They Used To

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Between 1934 and 1994, the party in charge of the presidency lost House seats in midterm congressional elections without fail. And for years, political scientists have elaborately laid out logical reasons for this to be the case: some have theorized that midterms serve as natural electoral “reflexes” to counterbalance strong party showings in presidential cycles, and others have advanced the idea that retrospective voting is responsible for consistent issue-based backlashes against the incumbent White House party. The durability of this pattern prior to 1998 led most midterm cycle analysts to speculate almost exclusively on how severe a White House loss of seats would be rather than whether a loss would occur in the first place. Yet remarkably, the 1998 and 2002 congressional midterms consecutively turned conventional wisdom on its head. In the midst of the 1998 impeachment saga, Clinton-loyal congressional Democrats added five new representatives to their ranks, stunning Republicans who had crossed their fingers in hopes that a “six year itch” would increase their slim majority and forcing incumbent GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich out of power. And in the midst of the 2002 build-up to the Iraq War, Bush-loyal Republicans defied the pattern once again, managing an overall gain

David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato

Don’t Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections

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(Editor’s note: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is delighted to present Professor Alan Abramowitz‘s original work in this week’s Crystal Ball Email Update, for the enjoyment and enlightenment of our faithful readers. Dr. Abramowitz is one of the most distinguished political scientists in the nation. A Stanford PhD and the Alben W. Barkley Chair-holder at Emory University, Alan’s many works on elections–presidential and congressional–are standard references for everyone in the field. Just as he has done so many times before, Alan has exploded the conventional wisdom about a topic: this time, partisan redistricting for Congress. You can contact Prof. Abramowitz directly at [email protected]. -Larry J. Sabato) “Here is a telling statistic. One hundred fifty-three of California’s congressional and legislative seats were up in the last election, and not one, I repeat, not one, changed parties. What kind of democracy is that?” With those words in his 2005 State of the State address, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger introduced a proposal to radically reform the electoral process in the Golden State. The problem with California’s congressional and legislative elections, according to Schwarzenegger, is that the Democratic majority in the Legislature has used its control over redistricting to maximize the number of Democratic seats by packing

Alan I. Abramowitz

House 2006: Can Democrats “Hammer” the GOP Majority?

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At this point in a midterm cycle, the Crystal Ball would normally lead off its analysis of the House landscape with a discussion about prospects for six year itches, open seats and early money. But alas, we’ve come to accept that nothing’s quite normal in Washington these days–and the fixation of the city’s media and political establishment on the ethics troubles of one prominent House figure is no exception. If last week’s hastily planned GOP gala-style pep rally was any indication, there now exists genuine concern in conservative circles about the political vulnerability of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Although the “Hammer” has earned his stripes by aggressively and impressively keeping his party in line over the years, it is clear the Texan faces tough battles on two fronts in the run-up to 2006: he must both defend his overseas travels before the House Ethics Committee and defend his increasingly marginal Houston-area seat against a seasoned challenger. (Our use of the word “marginal” must be qualified. Only in this day and age of nearly uniform, landslide House reelections could DeLay’s Houston CD be called marginal–but DeLay’s unimpressive 55 percent in 2004 and a strong 2006 challenger in former Democratic Congressman

David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato

2006 Statehouse Rock

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Take a look at the table below, which illustrates changes in party control of Governorships from FDR to George W. Bush over a span of six decades (1942-2004). What do you see? As usual, it all depends on what you are looking for. Most election years, especially in the last couple of decades, have produced remarkably little change in the overall balance of Democrats and Republicans. Nine of the eleven elections since 1984 have yielded a shift of three or fewer governorships from one party column to the other. In earlier decades, when presidential coattails and partisan identification were stronger in the electorate, Governors were tossed in or out of office along with the party tides. In the twenty-one elections from 1942-1982, almost half of them (ten total) recorded a shift of at least five, and up to eleven, Governorships per year. All in all, a dozen elections have been memorable for gubernatorial contests since 1942: 1948, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1958, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, and 1994. The Democrats triumphed in exactly half of the twelve, and the Republicans in the other half. (Political life can be fair, over time.) All the gains and losses make sense, too.

Larry J. Sabato

Governor 2006: The Democrats’ Most Promising Field of Battle?

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Partisan redistricting almost everywhere keeps the House of Representatives from demonstrating much of a political trend, unless the winds of change are hurricane-force. Senate contests are frequently idiosyncratic, distorted by the intense effects of incumbency and the massive spending of the wealthy. Moreover, only a third of the states feature Senate match-ups in any given election year, so the national trends are often muted. That leaves the Governorships, very special offices where the governmental rubber hits the road. If the political terrain favors the Democrats in 2006–if there’s at least a mild “Sixth Year Itch”–the Governorships are likely to prove to be the most fertile territory for the Democrats. Incumbency appears to matter less in the chief executive category, and voters will more often change parties in their statehouses–if only to signal that “it’s time for a change.” It is still ridiculously early, so we refuse to do more than “lean” any governorship to one party or the other, even when we think it is clear one side will win. Still, take a look at our review of the 38 Governor contests in 2005 and 2006. Democrats have a fair to good shot at taking over statehouses in Alaska, Alabama,

Larry J. Sabato

Senate 2006: Scratching Beneath the Surface of the Sixth-Year Itch

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Every election year is different, and the results of midterm elections have varied dramatically. Still, can recent history suggest anything about the 2006 Senate results? At the very least, our modern electoral experience can set goals for Democrats and Republicans alike. Let’s look at the last half-century of midterm elections for the U.S. Senate from 1950 to 2002. Note that we are including all midterm elections, both the first midterm election of a presidency and the second one in the sixth year of the two-term presidency. On average, the president’s party has lost three Senate seats in each of those 14 elections. The Democrats should aim to equal or beat the historical spread in 2006, bringing Republicans to 52 seats or fewer. The GOP and the White House have the opposite goal: to reduce the size of the average loss, or even post a gain above the Republicans’ current 55 seats. Both sides will play games with the numbers. (We know you are shocked speechless.) The games are easy to play, and to justify. Senate elections are idiosyncratic, not least because only a third of the seats are up in any election year. Moreover, some years see many open seats

Larry J. Sabato

Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable

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All Crystal Ball junkies know the drill. Every election year, most Senators skate by, especially the venerable elders who well fit their states. Meanwhile, a handful of Senators are vulnerable, and those are the contests we watch like hawks. In last week’s Crystal Ball email ( https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005032401), we examined seniority and the 109th Senate, as well as the seats that are currently open and those that might open between now and 2006. This week, we’ve brought you the 14 seats out of the 33 up for election that appear to be moderately to very vulnerable. In alphabetical order by state, they are: FL-Bill Nelson (D) MD-Open (D) MI-Debbie Stabenow (D) MN-Open (D) MT-Conrad Burns (R) ND-Kent Conrad (D)–only if GOP Governor John Hoeven runs NE-Ben Nelson (D) NJ-Open (D)–only if Senator Jon Corzine is elected governor in 2005 PA-Rick Santorum (R) RI-Lincoln Chafee (R) TN-Open (R) TX-Open (R)–only if Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for governor in 2006 VA-George Allen (R)–only if Governor Mark Warner (D) decides to run WA-Maria Cantwell (D) On the surface, this appears to be an impressive total: 14 of 33, with another three potential retirees (mentioned in last week’s email: Dianne Feinstein, Trent Lott, and

Larry J. Sabato

Senate 2006: Status Quo Central?

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Recently, Congressional Quarterly reported a startling statistic that received little attention, but should have been the source of extensive commentary for what it told us about the contemporary institution of the United States Senate. The current 109th Congress has achieved a remarkable milestone: It has the oldest Senate ever! The average senator serving today is 60.4 years of age. After the Reagan landslide of 1980 ushered in some fresh blood in the upper chamber, the average age was a much younger 52.5 years, for example. We can debate forever whether it is better to have more senior senators who have grown wise (rather than stale) with the decades, or whether youth should be served to a greater degree, infusing its energy and new ideas (despite a natural recklessness) into the upper chamber of Congress. What is indisputable is that both parties are begging their incumbents to continue serving, regardless of age. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) was the role model for this trend, having been elected to his last Senate term in 1996 at the age of nearly 94 and serving after his 100th birthday, passing away just a few months after he left the Senate. Now Democrats have convinced Robert C.

Larry J. Sabato

White House 2008: The Republicans

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Last week the Crystal Ball tackled the Democratic candidates for President in 2008–figuratively, at least (click here: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005022401). Now we turn our attention to the possible Republican presidential wannabes. Before we analyze specific candidates, remember that in 2008 the GOP will be completing eight years as the governing party in the White House. In order to achieve the task of grasping a third consecutive presidential term, the Republicans almost certainly must fulfill several conditions: President Bush must have had a successful second term, with significant policy achievements in several areas. President Bush must be relatively popular–which for this polarizing president means maintenance of a job approval rating around 50 percent or better in national surveys. The economy must be fair to good, and the international outlook (terrorism, Iraq , etc.) must be generally acceptable to the American people. Finally, and perhaps most important of all, the GOP must nominate a moderate-conservative within the American political mainstream, taking care not to go too far right but also not too far to the left of the dominant conservative activist corps. Should a moderate somehow win the GOP nod, say in a split field of conservatives, this political earthquake would likely generate a

Larry J. Sabato

White House 2008: The Democrats

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And so it begins anew: the quadrennial orgy that eventually results in the birth of a president. Over the decades the presidential gestation period has lengthened dramatically. While the “hidden campaign” to be the next president has always consumed the entire term of the incumbent, only in the past couple of elections has the full-blown public campaign stretched from the day after the last election to Election Day four years hence. Believe it or not, we are nearly four months into the 48 month 2008 campaign–and a mere 35 months away from the start of the primary nomination season. Thus, the Crystal Ball is due for its first review of the 2008 presidential line-up. In this issue we’ll take a look at the Democrats, and next time we’ll examine the Republicans. In presidential politics there are only two questions that matter: Who would make the best nominee in each party, and who will actually be nominated? Neither question can be definitively answered this early, since campaigns unwind in unpredictable ways, much like a Hegelian coil. That won’t stop us, of course, but remember that these answers are tentative, and subject to dramatic change as conditions evolve and revelations occur. The

Larry J. Sabato

So To…The SOTU

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Every four years the president treats the country to twinned rhetorical flourishes. First comes the poetry, in the form of the Inaugural Address. Then the prose follows, in the State of the Union address. Vigorous warfare between Democrats and Republicans has been waged without surcease, save for a few blessed days after the Nov. 2 election. With neither party giving any quarter, the president entered the House chamber to give the first State of the Union of his second term. Bush came as a conquering hero, possessing something lacking on Inauguration Day: real hope in Iraq, a consequence of the successful Jan. 30 elections on which Bush had staked virtually everything. In this one respect, Bush’s State of the Union had the element of “hope” that FDR offered on March 4, 1933, when he uttered his immortal words: “We have nothing to fear but [pause for effect] fear itself!” White House operatives could feel justifiable pride in this clever, fortuitous juxtaposition of events. The scheduling of the State of the Union so soon after the Iraqi elections was an enormous gamble, but it paid off. Second terms usually seem flat. The fizz has long since gone out of a presidency,

Larry J. Sabato

Recount Blues in the Evergreen State?

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As you know, we hate to boast, but the Crystal Ball was, to our knowledge, the only established, national political source to predict that Republican Dino Rossi would defeat Democrat Christine Gregoire in the Washington State governor’s race. (If we ar e wrong, let us know and we will correct this.) As all of our political aficionados know by now, Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed has just certified Rossi as the Governor-Elect, by a grand total of 42 votes out of 2.8 mi llion cast. Of course, it is not over until it is over, and the Democrats may ask for yet another recount by Friday, though that is a potentially costly route for them. It may well be that this unbelievably close result can be reversed in suc h a recount, which would eventually go statewide, should the first selective recount actually reverse the outcome. Be that as it may, we thought that our fellow political junkies might like to know that this is the closest gubernatorial contest in modern times–but is not the record: The tightest governor’s race in American history occurred in 1839 when Marcus Morton (D-MA) was elected by a single vote in the official

Larry J. Sabato

A Look Back, A Look Forward

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What an election! Whether you liked or disliked the outcome, surely you must agree that this contest will be remembered by history. We have not seen such intensity since 1968, and not coincidentally, the turnout of eligible adult Americans appears to have been larger in 2004 than any presidential year since…1968. We’re proud of our record at the Crystal Ball, having forecast 525 of 530 contests correctly–a 99 percent accuracy rating. We missed one Senate race, one House race, one governor’s race, and two states in the Electoral College, and like all political analysts reading the election returns, we are kicking ourselves for getting those wrong! But it was our best year ever, and we are thrilled. Now it’s on to the 2004 post-election book. We’ll soon have an announcement about ARMAGEDDON: The Bush-Kerry Contest (New York: Pearson/Longman, 2005). A terrific cast of first-rate academics, journalists, and political observers has joined forces to produce the analysis for this forthcoming volume. At the appropriate time, we’ll send you the details so you can order a copy, should you be so inclined. We will save our analysis for that venue, but don’t forget several points: The Perfect Majority Theorem: The “perfect majority”

Larry J. Sabato