2020 President

Dear Readers: In advance of tonight’s vice presidential debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, we are pleased to feature a debate preview from our friend Joel Goldstein, one of the nation’s leading experts on the vice presidency. Joel looks back on the history of vice presidential debates and points out some of the things we may hear tonight. Joel also will be joining us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes to analyze the debate and the state of the race. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, just email us at [email protected]. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. One other thing: In yesterday’s story about the political implications of statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, there was a mistake about the current voting status of Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. While neither the District nor Puerto Rico has voting representation in floor votes in Congress, the District casts three electoral votes for president, while Puerto Rico has no voting power in presidential

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and assessing the state of play in the election with just a little more than a month to go. If you have questions you would like us to address during the webinar about the debate, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, just email us at [email protected]. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. To get ready for the start of the debate season tonight, make sure to check out last week’s episode, in which we looked back at the history of televised presidential debates from Kennedy-Nixon in 1960 through Clinton-Trump in 2016; click here to see that episode. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. Today, we’re pleased to feature Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, who analyzes what the state polls tell us about the presidential race as we begin the debate season. And make sure to check out the new Ipsos/UVA Center

Ipsos, the global research firm, in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has unveiled its Political Atlas for the 2020 presidential election. With just weeks to go until Election Day, this tool will offer countless journalists, commentators, political operatives, fundraisers, and others invaluable insights into the state of the American electorate. “It’s more important than ever to provide as much context as possible to political polling numbers,” said Clifford Young, President of U.S. Public Affairs at Ipsos. “On-the-ground analysis of what issues are being discussed on the internet and in the media, what people are seeing on their social media feeds, how many new cases of COVID-19 there are in a given state, how bad unemployment has gotten—these factors all matter a great deal, and we ensured they were a major feature in our platform.” The Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Political Atlas compiles valuable information on how former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are performing on a state-by-state, and even county-by-county, level, combining up-to-date polling with analysis from UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato’s industry-leading Crystal Ball tool. From there, it goes deeper, allowing users to see fundraising totals, voting methods and

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. We’ll go through some of the most famous debate moments and discuss what they tell us about the looming clashes between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. You can find previous episodes of the show at our YouTube channel, as well as other recent UVA Center for Politics panels and programming. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. This week, we continue with our States of Play series. In 2016, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote the book The Bellwether, about why his home state of Ohio is so often at the center of presidential elections. Though the state lurched right in November of that year, there’s evidence Ohio may still be in a position to vote with the Electoral College winner — certainly if Trump wins, and possibly if Biden does as

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992. — Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948). — The greatest challenge for forecasting this year is in how the catastrophic second quarter GDP should be treated. — Based on President Trump’s approval ratings, in general and on the economy, as well as the projected third quarter GDP growth rates, the forecasts should depend exclusively on the preference polls, and they point to another extremely close election. The forecasting models Entering the home stretch of this surreal presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, many of us are holding our breath and looking with anxiety and trepidation toward Election Day. This forecast analysis will not alleviate this angst, but might prepare us a bit for what we may be heading toward. The basis for my presidential forecast is the Trial-Heat and Economy forecasting model. It is a simple, intuitively sensible, historically grounded, and transparent forecasting equation with a long history of

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We’ll be going over the latest in the race for president and we’ll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP) or at this direct YouTube link. The webinar will also be available at the same link if you can’t tune in live. Additionally, we’re pleased to announce that an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The latest Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings show how the presidential election could result in a 269-269 deadlock, with neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump possessing a majority of 270 electoral votes. — Even though Democrats hold a House majority and remain on track to maintain that majority next year, Republicans actually have and are likely to maintain an edge in a possible Electoral College tiebreaking vote. — All 50 state-level U.S. House delegations get a single vote to

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset. — Trump’s potential winning map would look a lot like 2016, with perhaps a few changes; Biden’s potential winning map might feature Democratic advances in the Sun Belt and retreats in the Midwest compared to past winning Democratic maps. — We are moving the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, which pushes our Electoral College count to 269 electoral votes at least leaning to Biden, 204 at least leaning to Trump, and 65 Toss-up electoral votes (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin). Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating change State Old Rating New Rating NE-2 Toss-up Leans Democratic The state of the presidential race Everybody complains about the Electoral College but nobody ever does anything about it. Before PolitiFact gets hold of this, let’s admit the statement is false in two respects. First, there are loads of plans floating out there to reform or abolish the Electoral College. We’ve dabbled at fixing it ourselves. But nothing’s going to happen this year — and

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series — in which we are taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election — we look at North Carolina, a state that both parties have made serious attempts at winning since 2008. For 2020, the Republican National Convention was set to be held in Charlotte; while some aspects of the convention are being held in person, the events that the public is seeing are generally being held elsewhere (and virtually). Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman is joined by Bennett Stillerman, a current student at UNC-Chapel Hill who interned with the Center for Politics this summer. This is our fourth installment; previous editions featured Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After President Obama’s narrow win there in 2008, light red North Carolina has proved elusive for Democrats — but it remains a target for both sides. — North Carolina’s politics are increasingly shaped by its growing bloc of unaffiliated voters. — Over the past decade, North Carolina’s traditional east-west divide has evolved into more of an urban-rural split — a pattern seen in many other states.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The most critical moments in the 2020 election will come after Election Day, Nov. 3 — Millions of mail ballots induced by the coronavirus will delay final results in some states for several weeks after the election. — Congress is most likely to certify a Biden victory, but Trump (or Pelosi) might still win. The big questions after the vote Political fanatics — including me — are now focused on the presidential contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But the more interesting events may not actually happen on Election Day, Nov. 3. I now am convinced that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the popular vote by a significant margin and have a decisive Electoral College majority. Although the campaign will be the focus of most commentary, I think the Biden victory is very likely, as now evident in consistent polls as well as political science models. In the Crystal Ball of Aug. 4, renowned analyst Alan Abramowitz forecast a Biden victory within a range of 319 to 361 electoral votes. Those assessments aside, and even assuming that Biden wins, that vote must actually be cast, counted, and certified. For even a leading

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series — in which we’ll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election — we look at Wisconsin. In a universe without the COVID-19 pandemic, this bright purple state would now be hosting thousands of delegates at the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman looks at the state’s recent political history and trends. This is our third installment; the first two featured Pennsylvania and Georgia. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Even without the optics that come from hosting the Democratic National Convention, Wisconsin will be a crucial state this fall. — Joe Biden’s apparent strength with older voters may buoy him in rural parts of the state, though Donald Trump also may have some room to improve even after his tremendous rural showings four years ago. — Aside from the presidential contest, the state will see few competitive major races. Wisconsin: Arguably 2020’s most vital state As we closed out 2019, one of the Crystal Ball’s final pieces of the year looked at what could be the pivotal state this year: Wisconsin. At