2020 President

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. — Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is leading with independents after Clinton and Trump were tied with them at this point; and more poll respondents support the major party candidates overall. — In other words, there are fewer undecideds and fewer voters saying they will vote third party. — Overall, this is probably good for Joe Biden given that he is leading, but Trump still has time to catch up, and unlike Biden, Trump doesn’t really need to win the popular vote to win the election. 2016 vs. 2020 in the national polls As we enter the final day of the Democratic National Convention, it remains to be seen whether either of these virtual conventions will change the presidential race all that much. Joe Biden, the current polling leader, probably wouldn’t mind maintaining the status quo. Donald Trump, who has been behind, needs the race to change. Overall, though, the contest has been relatively stable. As Alan

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones. — Campaign forecasting models, at least the Decision Desk HQ/Øptimus Analytics model, do more than provide horse race numbers. We aggregate important data such as polling, FEC reports, and historical results in one place for easy public consumption. — The goal of a forecast model is not to replace someone’s thinking but to offer a tool to better inform their thought process and ability to reach a conclusion. The value of modeling elections It’s been a long four years for U.S. election pollsters and forecasters. I have had countless conversations with people about whether the 2016 polls were wrong, whether the FiveThirtyEight model was totally off, and how anyone can come into 2020 with any measure of certainty about what’s going to happen. Beyond my own interactions, the general public has expressed skepticism of the polls and of forecasting models too. With the last four years hanging over our heads, I and the team at

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s vice presidential search was the longest in modern history, and it involved an unusually large and diverse list of contenders. — Yet Biden’s eventual choice was also conventional in that he selected a sitting senator — common for modern Democrats — and that he ignored swing state considerations in his selection. — The VP selection transitions Biden more fully from being the supporting part of the Obama-Biden ticket to the leader of the Biden-Harris ticket — and the Democratic Party as a whole. The Harris pick in context Vice President Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate concludes one of the most unique and historic vice presidential selection processes in American history. Biden’s selection process is the first time in American history that a major party presidential candidate committed at the outset to choose a woman as his running mate. It was only the second vice presidential selection process in which a major party presidential candidate made a point of considering multiple members of minority groups as his or her running mate — the first, of course, being Walter F. Mondale’s 1984 process which produced Geraldine Ferraro’s nomination.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Kamala Harris, long seen as a frontrunner to be Joe Biden’s running mate, represents a vetted, qualified, and safe VP choice. — Harris is the latest in a long line of Democratic senators who have become running mates. If she becomes vice president, Democrats should not have any real obstacles to keeping her seat. — Biden’s new running mate has only been in the Senate for less than four years, but she was California’s statewide elected attorney general before that — though she almost lost in 2010. The Biden-Harris ticket Sen. Kamala Harris of California it is. To judge by past and present commentary, Harris has been the frontrunner all along. Perhaps the only thing holding her back was a tough exchange with Joe Biden in the first Democratic debate. Yet Biden is a seasoned politician with a half-century in politics at the highest levels. If you don’t forgive and forget, at least sometimes, you’re not going to be successful in the long run. And after all, Biden and Harris were running against one another. As the old saying goes, politics ain’t beanbag. At first blush, Harris appears to be a smart pick. California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models. — The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models. — Some research shows that overly certain forecasts might depress turnout, which could matter in close races. Introduction Humans generally do not like uncertainty. We like to think we can predict the future. That is why it is tempting to boil elections down to a simple set of numbers: The probability that Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win the election. Polls are a readily available, plentiful data source, and because we know that poll numbers correlate strongly with election outcomes as the election nears, it is enticing to use polls to create a model that estimates those probabilities. After my forecast, which gave Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of winning on Election Day, collided with the fact of Trump’s victory, I spent a lot of time considering what went wrong and the impact of my work. I have concluded that marketing probabilistic poll-based forecasts to the general public is at best a disservice to the audience, and

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections — the power of incumbency and the state of the economy — may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health crisis. — A forecasting model based on evaluations of the incumbent president may be a better fit for this election. — This incumbent accountability model makes Donald Trump an underdog, but gives him about a 30% chance of winning based on his current approval rating. — However, he needs to improve his approval rating significantly to better position himself for a second term, based on history. A different kind of election The 2020 presidential election presents forecasters with unique challenges. First and foremost, the election is taking place in the midst of one of the most severe crises that the United States has faced in the past hundred years — the coronavirus pandemic. Not only has the pandemic already killed over 150,000 Americans, with thousands more likely to die before Election Day, but it has also produced the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression with the unemployment rate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — College students are a key voting bloc whose participation in this year’s election may be blunted by the public health crisis. — Major efforts are needed to ensure that students know how to vote,  make sure their vote is counted. Time is now to address student voting this fall The United States’ 20 million college students are a significant voting bloc and have the capability of deciding elections. For that to occur, first they must register to vote. The best way to do this, and then to get these college students to actually vote, requires direct outreach. Traditionally, that occurs on-campus — something that COVID-19 has made particularly challenging this year. “Dorm Storms” of registering student voters in their residence halls will not be happening. For this year’s coronavirus campaign, new ways must be undertaken to find, register and educate these voters, and then to make sure their vote counts when they do so. Given a recent survey finding that Joe Biden holds a 34-point advantage over Donald Trump with 18-29 year olds, if the 2020 presidential race is just as close in key states as the one in 2016, fewer students voting could

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. — With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states. — We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. — Our current ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead. — We also are moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes State Old Rating New Rating Alaska Safe Republican Likely Republican Indiana Safe Republican Likely Republican Kansas Safe Republican Likely Republican Missouri Safe Republican Likely Republican Montana Safe Republican Likely Republican South Carolina Safe Republican Likely Republican Utah Safe Republican Likely Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Mike Parson (R-MO) Likely Republican Leans Republican Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings The Electoral College fringe expands We are now about six

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Kanye West tweeted over the weekend that he is running for president. — He has already missed some state deadlines to file for president as an independent, and other deadlines loom. Presidential filing deadlines loom Rapper Kanye West tweeted the following over the weekend: “We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION” He also spoke with Forbes. As best as we can tell, West has not taken any concrete steps toward running for president. He stressed that he has 30 days to decide because of filing deadlines, although he’s actually already missed a few. West’s tweet prompted us to look at the various state filing deadlines to run for president as an independent. If West or someone else wanted to gear up and try to run a national campaign for president, could they? The answer is, for the most part, yes, but the hour grows late. Table 1 shows the filing deadlines for all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, to get on the ballot as an independent presidential candidate. We gathered this

Dear Readers: As we’ve stressed throughout this election season, the president isn’t picked by national polling or the popular vote, but rather by the individual states — successful presidential nominees must cobble together a coalition of at least 270 electoral votes. With that in mind, we’re launching a series called “States of Play,” where we’ll be taking a detailed look at some of the key battleground states that may decide the election. Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Rhodes Cook will kick off the series this week by looking at Pennsylvania, and we’ll be taking a detailed look at other states in the weeks and months to come. By examining these voting trends in crucial states, we’re hoping to paint a more complete electoral picture of the nation’s political landscape. Until Donald Trump narrowly captured the Keystone State in 2016, it had a slight but enduring Democratic tilt in presidential contests — but many changes were going on internally within the state, as Rhodes will illustrate. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In 2016, Donald Trump inspired higher Republican turnout in Pennsylvania, while Hillary Clinton couldn’t offset her losses in the non-metro parts of the state. — Voter registration

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week. — Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. — This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings; 204 are at least leaning to Donald Trump; and there are 66 electoral votes in the Toss-up category. — Biden is decently positioned, although his current lead may be inflated. Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes State Old Rating New Rating Florida Leans Republican Toss-up Pennsylvania Toss-up Leans Democratic Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings The state of the presidential race When we first debuted our 2020 Electoral College ratings way back in February 2019, we had a couple of ratings that we thought might raise eyebrows: We rated Michigan, Donald Trump’s closest victory in 2016, as Leans Democratic, and Florida, a state he won by just 1.2 points, as Leans Republican. Our reasoning, in a nutshell, was that we thought Trump’s victory in Michigan was flukier than his wins anywhere else, and a better Democratic campaign effort in Michigan could be enough to flip the state.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much his campaign values well-attended rallies. — Trump campaigned more times in more states than Hillary Clinton in 2016. — However, a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show rallies having a significant impact on that election’s results. — Campaigns may derive indirect benefits from rallies, though, such as voter contacts, press coverage, and donations. But there’s not much evidence to show that the number of rallies in a given state had an impact on the results. Do campaign rallies matter? Last Saturday, after a lengthy hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic, President Trump held his first live campaign rally in Tulsa, OK. Holding a live campaign event with thousands of supporters gathered in an indoor arena in a safe Republican state in the midst of a pandemic was a controversial move. So was holding the event one day after the Juneteenth celebration of the liberation of Black slaves during the Civil War in a city in which many Black residents were killed in a white race riot in 1921. As it turned out, attendance at the rally was

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice enter our list of Joe Biden’s vice presidential contenders. — Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) drops off. — The top names remain the same. Biden’s VP contenders Our friend, top vice presidential scholar Joel Goldstein, argues in a companion piece to this one that Joe Biden’s VP selection process is so fluid at this point that one cannot reasonably handicap the pick. Joel is probably right, but what’s fun about that? Biden’s list of contenders still seems to be fairly long: We have 11 names on this update, after we had 10 a couple of weeks ago. As we noted last week in a brief note, we wanted to revise our own list to include two contenders we didn’t include the first time: Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) and former Obama administration National Security Adviser Susan Rice (D). They make their debuts around the middle of our list. We dropped one name from the list: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), whose selection would jeopardize her Senate seat — Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), a favorite for reelection, would appoint her successor — and doesn’t