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2020 President

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Biden VP Calculus

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As Joe Biden zeroes in on his VP options, there are some myths about the choice that are worth exploring. — The pick does in fact matter, or at least it has historically, and whoever is chosen won’t be picked for just one reason, but rather for several. — Biden himself probably doesn’t even know who his pick will be, so we can’t make truly reliable and informed predictions about who the pick will be as of yet. Biden’s VP calculus When former Vice President Joe Biden effectively secured the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination in March, political conversation turned to who should and would be his running mate. Biden’s mid-March announcement that he will select a woman was doubly historic. It represented the first time a presidential candidate had publicly narrowed the pool so early and presented the first time when a woman vice presidential nominee will have a significant chance of election since the prior two women running mates, Rep. Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008, were largely “Hail Mary” additions to tickets far behind in the polls. Biden’s running mate will stand a good chance of being the

Joel K. Goldstein

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over Trump in the first half of 2016. — However, Biden’s lead has been more stable. 2016 vs. 2020 in the national polls With less than five months left in the 2020 election campaign, former Vice President Joseph Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in both national and swing state polling. In the past few weeks, Biden has widened his lead in the RealClearPolitics national poll average from less than six points to about eight points. Of course, astute poll watchers will recall that four years ago, Hillary Clinton also led Donald Trump in most national and swing state polls. In the end, though, Trump won the election by narrowly defeating Clinton in several key swing states. So how does Biden’s current situation compare with Clinton’s in 2016? A close analysis of national polling in 2016 and 2020 based on data compiled by RealClearPolitics indicates that Biden’s lead

Alan I. Abramowitz

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. — Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. — Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw protest voting in some key races. Veepstakes and primaries — Thanks to everyone who reacted to last week’s breakdown of Joe Biden’s vice presidential options. After seeing your comments and following subsequent veepstakes developments over the weekend and earlier this week, it seems clear we did not include at least one prime contender: Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D). It is pretty obvious that she is emerging as a prime candidate to be selected, even though she lacks the formal, high-level elected experience that vice presidential nominees almost always possess (she’s never served in Congress or as a state governor). That said, she has earned a much higher profile in the midst of the ongoing national protests over police brutality, and some plugged-in people view her as a top contender for the VP slot. She will almost certainly be included in our next list of contenders, along with former national

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Landslide Elections and Policy Mandates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Election landslides can sometimes look like policy mandates for the winners. — But landslides have become rare in presidential elections since 1960. — The legitimacy of U.S. elections might benefit from a new landslide in 2020. Could 2020 be a landslide? As we approach the culmination of the critical election of 2020, we might get useful perspective by looking at past presidential elections. Begin with a simple question: Why do we care about elections? Alexis de Tocqueville, the great early analyst of American life, was astonished at the tumult of our political contests: “Factional ardor is redoubled, and all the artificial passions which the imagination can create in a happy and peaceful land are agitated and brought to light…[W]ho can refrain from astonishment that such a storm could have arisen?” An easy answer would be that elections create the future of the country, as the electorate determines the policy choices of the nation. But decades of studies of voting have demonstrated that policy decisions are only one, and often only a minor, consideration in voters’ minds. Indeed, much research presents considerable evidence that the electorate is uninterested, perhaps incapable, of making specific policy choices.

Gerald M. Pomper

The Veepstakes: Handicapping Biden’s Choices

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden should not be in a rush to name his vice presidential pick. Circumstances may change his list of contenders — and probably already have. — A predictable name leads our list, but a not-so predictable name is second. — Biden has many plausible options, but no perfect one. The Klobuchar hypothetical — and why it’s smart for Biden to wait If you ever wonder why it takes so long for presumptive presidential nominees to name their running mates, even those who effectively wrap up their nominations relatively early in the nominating season, consider this hypothetical: What if, two weeks ago, Joe Biden determined that he wanted to make a splash and had announced his vice presidential choice early? Already struggling to break through the news cycle, Biden reasoned that picking his running mate would give him an important new surrogate to help make the case for his candidacy. In making his choice in this hypothetical situation, Biden prioritized three major factors: proven success in an electorally important region; high-level experience to assist him as a governing partner in the White House; and a pedigree that would reassure voters the vice president could

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. — There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican Safe Republican Notes from Tuesday’s primaries The first Tuesday in June of a presidential year is often a major political event — but for a lot of obvious reasons, this year’s early June primaries did not feature much drama or excitement. — The headline result, and the only one that is prompting us to make a rating change, is Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss to state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) in a Republican-leaning northwest Iowa district. King’s litany of racist comments had become impossible to ignore, and Republican leadership had stripped him of his committee assignments. This district voted for Donald Trump by a 60%-33% margin, and King’s narrow, three-point victory in 2018 had a lot to do with his abhorrent comments. With King out of the picture, Feenstra should be fine against 2018 nominee J.D. Scholten (D). We moved IA-4 from Likely Republican to Safe Republican on

Kyle Kondik

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Compared to 2004, another year that featured a Republican president in a lightly-contested primary and a contested Democratic primary race, turnout has been up across the board. — 63% of the votes cast in this year’s primaries have been on the Democratic side, which, interestingly, mirrors 2004. — States that hold both their presidential and congressional primaries on the same day may see unique turnout dynamics. — We made a House rating change late last week: Rep. Josh Harder (D, CA-10) moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. A brief explanation is included at the end of this article. Table 1: House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Josh Harder (D, CA-10) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic 2020 vs 2004: More votes, but same breakdown Early in the primary season, Republican pollster John Couvillon noted that President Trump’s “unshakable” rapport with the Republican Party’s base may be leading GOP partisans to do something unusual historically: turn out in uncontested primaries. In state after state, Trump would routinely receive far more raw votes than previous sitting presidents who found themselves in lightly-contested reelection primaries. For a president who famously values personal loyalty, Trump’s vote totals

J. Miles Coleman

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. — The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. — This suggests that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems that occurred in 2016 in light of the 2016 results. — However, the election is still five months away. A swing state edge for Biden, at least for now The winner of the 2020 presidential election will be determined not by who wins the national popular vote but by who wins the most electoral votes in around a dozen states in which the outcome remains in doubt. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the national popular vote by just over two percentage points but won a majority of electoral votes because he won most of the electoral votes in these swing states. In this article, I examine how Trump is doing in the same swing states in 2020 against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joseph Biden. I define swing states as those in which the margin separating Donald Trump

Alan I. Abramowitz

Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The panel will be streamed at: https://livestream.com/tavco/veepstakes If you have a question you’d like us to ask the panel, email us at [email protected]. Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik will moderate the panel; below, Kyle assesses the vice presidential decision for Donald Trump. All signs point to a repeat of Trump-Pence for 2020, although there are a few reasons why Trump making a different choice can’t be completely ruled out. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — History, and the president’s own public statements, suggest that the Trump-Pence ticket will stick together in 2020. — The last time an elected president running for reelection changed his running mate was Franklin Roosevelt way back in 1944. — But there are some reasons to believe that Trump could revisit his running mate choice between now and the Republican National Convention. Trump-Pence 2020 (?) There’s no real indication that President Donald Trump

Kyle Kondik

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to noon. Hosted by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, the online event will feature “Thomas Jefferson” (played by historical reenactor Bill Barker) live from Jefferson’s actual study at Monticello followed by a special tribute from Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA). The public is invited to join online at here This celebration will end promptly at noon in advance of the official University of Virginia virtual celebration and conferral of degrees, which begins at 1 p.m. on Saturday. For more information, see here. Then, next Thursday, May 21, at noon eastern, an expert panel will examine the “Veepstakes.” Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; vice presidential historian Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Theodore Johnson will examine Joe Biden’s options for vice president, whether Donald Trump might consider a new running mate, the historical importance of vice presidential choices, and other factors that will go into the VP selection. Crystal Ball Managing

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Gubernatorial Appointment Powers for U.S. Senate Seats: Which Vacancies Could Prompt a Party Switch?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In a presidential election year, the senatorial appointment powers of governors become especially important, as sitting U.S. senators become possible choices for vice president or the Cabinet of an incoming president. — Currently, in 38 states, there is no chance that the gubernatorial appointment of a temporary senator will come from the opposite party. In the remaining 12 states, a party-shifting senatorial appointment is theoretically possible. — Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden shouldn’t have much to worry about as he makes his choices. Most of the senators who could become Biden’s running mate represent states where their seat would not be at immediate risk of a party shift. The one exception is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). — A special election necessitated by a senator leaving her seat to become vice president could also lead to Democrats losing a Senate seat. This could give Biden pause as he considers some choices, perhaps most notably Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). The Senate control implications of Biden’s VP possibilities Note: This story has been corrected to include Montana as a state where a new Senate appointee must share the same party as the departed senator, and it corrects

Louis Jacobson

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race: Don’t Project it Forward to the Fall

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m., Kyle Kondik (Managing Editor of the Crystal Ball) will moderate a panel of four experts, “Voting in the Midst of a Pandemic.” He will be joined by Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission; Myrna Pérez, Director of the Brennan Center’s Voting Rights and Elections Program; Charles Stewart III, Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science at MIT; and Matthew Weil, director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Elections Project. The panel will be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/votinginapandemic. To submit a question for the panel, email us at [email protected]. In today’s Crystal Ball, we’re pleased to welcome a couple of new writers: Dan Guild, a must-follow on Twitter, examines the president’s approval rating both nationally and in the states; and Tommy Dannenfelser, a Crystal Ball intern, looks at Joe Biden’s efforts to attract Bernie Sanders’ supporters. But first, we have a detailed look at Wisconsin’s closely-watched state Supreme Court race. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Amidst some unusual, pandemic-induced conditions, Democratic-backed judge Jill Karofsky ousted conservative incumbent Daniel Kelly for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. — Karofsky’s win was surprisingly decisive — it tracked closely with Sen. Tammy

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Trump Struggling to Match Job Approval in Polling

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is a substantial and persistent difference among pollsters’ findings with respect to Donald Trump’s job approval and his percentage against Joe Biden. — Biden’s ability to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will be decisive. — Trump’s statewide job approval is almost exactly what one would predict given his 2016 share of the vote. His approval is below 50% in every state that was competitive in 2016. — However, Trump’s predicted two-party share of the vote is over 50% in states with 289 electoral votes. Seven states with a combined 88 electoral votes are projected to be within one point. Trump approval versus voteshare Few relationships are as strong in politics as the relationship between an incumbent’s presidential approval and the vote he receives in his race for reelection. Importantly, current polling shows significant inconsistency between Trump’s approval and his share of the vote. Figure 1 documents polling that includes both Trump’s job approval and percentage in trial heats. On average, Trump’s job approval is about three points higher than what he receives in trial heats against former Vice President Joe Biden. But there is substantial variance in the relationship pollsters find. Figure 1: Trump

Dan Guild

Sanders Voters: Will They Coalesce Behind the Presumptive Nominee?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on Monday officially endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. — Following a disappointing stretch of contests, Sanders had dropped out of the presidential race last Wednesday, leaving Biden as the presumptive nominee. — Even with a Sanders exit and subsequent endorsement, the Biden campaign has reason to be concerned about Sanders’ supporters coalescing behind Biden. Biden tries to unify his party “We need you in the White House. I will do all that I can to see that that happens, Joe.” With that phrase on Monday, Bernie Sanders officially threw his support behind Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Sanders’ endorsement came as the uncertainty surrounding the current coronavirus pandemic has created a need for unity within the Democratic Party in order to defeat President Donald Trump. The livestreamed video endorsement came just five days after Sanders had suspended his campaign, which paved the way for Biden to become the presumptive nominee. Though the Sanders campaign could point to an impressive network of volunteers and a robust fundraising operation at the time, the senator cited the hard realities of delegate math. Despite his strength in

Tommy Dannenfelser

Applying Conventional Criteria to Biden’s Unconventional Vice Presidential Pool

Dear Readers: Please join us today (Tuesday, April 7) at 3:30 p.m. eastern for a conversation between ABC News chief White House correspondent Jonathan Karl and University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato. They will be discussing Karl’s new book, Front Row at the Trump Show, which details Karl’s experience covering the Trump White House. To watch, just use the following link: https://livestream.com/tavco/frontrowtrumpshow. To submit a question for Karl, email us at [email protected] or tweet using the hashtag #cfpkarl. This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week; we’ll be back on Thursday with our regular issue. We’re pleased today to once again feature Joel Goldstein, one of the nation’s leading experts on the vice presidency, to assess Joe Biden’s options for vice president. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Biden’s historic announcement that his running mate will be a woman will limit his process in an unprecedented way, yet it still leaves him with a number of choices who reachable voters are likely to view as plausible presidents. — Even if Biden emphasizes choosing a presidential-caliber running mate, as governance and political considerations would dictate, the timing of the

Joel K. Goldstein