Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. -- The 2024 Electoral...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. -- This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last...
On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can...
The Center for Politics’s latest book -- The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 -- is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Nearly 600 days before the election, an early citizen forecast -- using voters’ expectations of likely election outcomes rather than vote intentions -- estimates an even chance for a Republican or Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election. -- However, while citizens estimate that...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection. -- However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As Joe Biden seeks a second presidential term, his time as vice president shows how the office can be a springboard to the presidency. -- Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, is learning that the vice presidency may not be an advantage in seeking...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....
Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...
Dear Readers: Join us at 10:30 eastern this morning for a conversation with the Honorable Mark Brzezinski, Ambassador of the United States to Poland. The ambassador will discuss the latest issues impacting Poland and the U.S. with particular emphasis on the war in Ukraine. This virtual event will be streaming...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive. -- Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small. -- Assuming...
Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia....
Dear Readers: New Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney will discuss her time in Congress, her role on the Select Committee that investigated Jan. 6, 2021, and more in a conversation with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato on Wednesday, April 19. The conversation will run from...
