Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024

Assessing the new House landscape as redistricting is (probably) over; looking ahead to next week’s down-ballot Ohio and Illinois primaries

Dear Readers: Last night, Joe Biden and Donald Trump officially became the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, setting up a general election that (to us) basically started months ago. In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we’re looking down the ballot—both at the overall House...

Running Out the Clock When Time is of the Essence

Checking in on Trump’s legal questions

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald J. Trump, who has now effectively become the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, faces 91 felony counts and is charged with numerous crimes ranging from allegations that he tried to subvert elections, illegally hoarded classified documents, and falsified business records with a hush money...

What Stood Out from Super Tuesday

Biden, Trump dominant despite familiar weak spots; highlights of the down-ballot primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While one can point out weaknesses for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden in their Super Tuesday performances, each turned in dominant showings. -- Senate matchups were set in the megastates of California and Texas, with the former a snoozer and the latter a...

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This is the second part of our history of presidential-Senate split-ticket results, from World War II to now. This part covers the mid-1980s to present, a timeframe that started with many instances of split results and ended with hardly any at all. -- In...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024

The Michigan primary; how we would rate the new NY House map; previewing California’s top-two House primary

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features shorter updates on elections and politics. This week, we are recapping last night’s presidential primaries in Michigan, plotting out our ratings for the likely new congressional map in New York, and looking ahead...

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years. -- This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have...

Notes on the State of the Senate

Analyzing Hogan’s entry in Maryland; deciphering action out west; the 2024 Democratic downside risk

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE --Last week, national Republicans got their best possible Senate recruit in deep blue Maryland, with former Gov. Larry Hogan. --Though Hogan will be hard pressed to actually win, as has been the case with some other recent “crossover” governors who’ve run in Senate races, his candidacy...

Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

Breaking down the key special election; analyzing Toss-ups across the House map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) begins the November general election as a favorite in our ratings following his impressive special election win. -- Republicans who hoped that immigration would be a superweapon for them in 2024 cannot really point to NY-3 as a validation...

The Race for the House, Part Two

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans. -- Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider...

The Race for the House, Part One

Ticket-splitting dwindling but still vital; GOP got a little more of it in key 2016/2020 races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Any analysis of House elections needs to start with the presidential race, as voting for the former has become so intertwined with the latter. -- That said, some voters do still split their tickets, and they may decide the House majority. -- Despite worries...

A Deeper Dig into the Granite

The Trump, Haley, and Biden coalitions in the New Hampshire primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE —With a lull in the primary calendar, we thought we’d take a closer look at last week’s New Hampshire primary. —Nikki Haley’s town-level victories were confined almost exclusively to places that Joe Biden carried in the 2020 general election. —Although Biden showed some weakness in a...

This Year’s Key Attorney General and Secretary of State Races

Battleground states North Carolina and Pennsylvania lead the list

Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson covers state-level races for the Crystal Ball, and he is back this week with an updated look at this year’s elections for state attorneys general and secretaries of state. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of...

The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting

In vintage Louisiana fashion, Democrats gain a second Louisiana seat

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Earlier this week, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed a new House map that creates a second Black-majority seat in the state. -- The new district, stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, would have favored Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020 and is Safe...