Sabato’s Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors — race and education — have driven the changes. — The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and have improved with white college-educated voters, while Republicans have cut deeply into Democratic support with non-college whites. — Racial and cultural issues, rather than economic ones, have fueled Republican gains with the non-college white electorate. How the electorate has changed The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 4 decades. This transformation has involved changes in both the demographic composition of the electorate and the party loyalties of major demographic groups. In this essay, I describe long-term trends in the demographic composition of the electorate and in the party loyalties of key demographic groups, focusing on two crucial demographic variables: race and education. I then examine the forces driving the striking shift in the party loyalties of the group that still makes up the largest share of the American electorate — white voters without a college degree, a group often referred to as the white working class. Demographic change

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. — But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else who runs essentially an afterthought. — DeSantis is polling well for a non-candidate, but we need to see how he actually performs before assuming that his support is solid. — If another candidate supplants DeSantis (or Trump), or at least vaults into their stratosphere, don’t necessarily assume it will be someone who is currently well-known now or has a lot of formal political experience. Assessing the GOP presidential primary It feels late — and also early — in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. It may be late because despite the fact that we are still nearly a year away from the actual voting, the top 2 contenders seem to be so clear. The winnowing process that so often defines the year in advance of the primary voting may have effectively already happened – it’s just that the winnowed candidates, some of whom aren’t even candidates yet, don’t know

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans. — This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are now as ideologically cohesive as Republicans, which is a big change from a decade ago, when Republicans were significantly more cohesive than Democrats. — While white Democrats have moved more to the left than nonwhite Democrats have on some issues, both groups have become more liberal since 2012. Ideological congruence in the American electorate Growing partisan-ideological congruence has been one of the most important trends affecting American politics over the past several decades. The ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans has increased dramatically since the 1970s as Republicans have grown increasingly conservative and Democrats have grown increasingly liberal. This increase in partisan-ideological congruence has affected rank-and-file voters as well as party elites and activists. In this article, I use data from American National Election Studies surveys to examine trends in partisan-ideological congruence among Democratic and Republican voters since 2012. To measure partisan-ideological congruence, I examine trends in ideological identification and

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. — Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party — and the State of the Union is unlikely to help generate any. — Biden’s best friend is weakness within the Republican Party, which was on display once again on Tuesday night. Biden’s State of the Union There are competing realities at the heart of the president’s annual State of the Union address. It is both typically unmemorable, yet also is probably the biggest scheduled event on the political calendar. This is particularly true in odd-numbered years, in which there are few elections of national import. Content-wise, State of the Union addresses are typically formulaic, a laundry list of presidential accomplishments and asks. While many inaugural addresses have stood the test of time, State of the Union addresses typically have not. The Library of America’s American Speeches: Political Oratory from Abraham Lincoln to Bill Clinton includes only a single State of the Union address in its collection: Franklin Roosevelt’s Jan. 6, 1941 address to Congress in