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Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Notes on the State of North Carolina

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Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events of Jan. 6, 2021 as experienced by officers on the frontline. The event will feature a discussion with several of those officers and will be held at the UVA Rotunda Dome Room. To register to attend, either in-person or virtually, visit Eventbrite. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As with other states across the South and the nation, Black turnout last month was not as strong as Democrats would have liked. — This was seen in North Carolina, where Republicans, as has usually been the case for the last few decades, narrowly came out on the winning side of a Senate race. — Still, last month’s result may send mixed messages for the parties going forward. — Democrats are strong favorites to win the VA-4 special election and are voting on a nominee today. North Carolina in recent midterms While Democrats broadly overperformed expectations in last month’s

J. Miles Coleman

Will Trump Succeed?

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election. — The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections. — But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. Trump: A weak 2022, but promise for 2024 A week after the 2022 congressional elections, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. The former president will seek to replicate the trifecta of Grover Cleveland in 1884 (win), 1888 (lose), and 1892 (win). His chances of winning the bet will be affected by at least two factors: his record in the elections just concluded and the institutional structure of the Republican nomination contest. The first will hamper his bid for power. The second may strengthen the odds of winning victory within the party. The Elections of 2022 Trump is both the also-ran of the presidential election of 2020 and an unrelenting sore loser who refuses to acknowledge his defeat. In 2022, Trump seemed primarily interested in revengefully defeating those who had opposed him politically, especially those who voted for his impeachment. His attention

Gerald Pomper

The Electoral College in the 21st Century

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Dear Readers: Join the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman, and Carah Ong Whaley for a Twitter Spaces at 2 p.m. eastern today. They will be wrapping up the best and worst moments from politics in 2022, and listeners will also get the chance to answer trivia questions and win some Center for Politics swag. If you cannot join us live, we will release the Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The United States is in an extremely competitive era of presidential elections. — In the 6 elections this century, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in all but 1 of them. — Many of the states have been consistent in their presidential voting since 2000, although there have been key shifts that have altered the roster of most competitive swing states. — Relative to the nation, much of the West has become more Democratic over the past 2 decades, along with some other pockets of the country, while many states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Greater South have become more Republican. — The most competitive states in 2020 may be the

Kyle Kondik

The End of a Golden Age?

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Dear Readers: We’re excited to feature an essay from a distinguished UVA alumnus, David Peyton, on the challenges election prognosticators face in an unstable and fast-changing geopolitical environment. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — American elections are becoming harder to predict. — Part of this is likely because of the immense changes and disruptions we are seeing not only in the United States, but in the world as a whole. — If the underlying social phenomena are less stable, then predictions become unavoidably chancier. The difficulties of forecasting in an unstable world Readers of the Crystal Ball have become accustomed to predictions of an extremely high level of accuracy. There were years one wondered whether the Center for Politics team could ever do any better. Predictions in 2022 have not matched previous performances. Numerous sources have discussed the difficulties in polling. A recent phone call for Center supporters included the exceedingly unwelcome news that some universities have abandoned their neutral polling efforts for fear of negative consequences from delivering what some officeholders would consider unacceptable news. But deeper, underlying reasons indicate that what one might call a Golden Age of political predictions has ended, not to be

David Peyton

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

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Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece — on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections — is below. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An analysis of 552 Republican candidates running for Senate, House of Representatives, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general in the 2022 elections shows that close to half (221 candidates) who made statements on a spectrum from those who accepted the 2020 election outcome with reservations to those who fully denied the results won in 2022. — Candidates who fully denied the 2020 election didn’t have all that much trouble raising funds. Nearly $500 million was raised by 192 candidates who fully denied results compared to about $515 million raised by those who ran in opposition. — While the good news is that surveys show the majority of Americans are confident their votes will be accurately cast and counted, confidence is at historic lows and there is a partisan divide. — The extent to which unfounded claims of election fraud

Carah Ong Whaley

Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic

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Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If you can’t tune in live, we’ll release the Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast, which is available on major podcast providers. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Georgia’s Senate runoff moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on the eve of tomorrow’s election. — Herschel Walker (R) needs a big Election Day showing to overcome what should be a decent-sized lead for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the early vote. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Democratic Previewing the Georgia runoff It’s probably fair to say that Georgia has been one of the more Trump-averse states. In 2016, the Peach State was one of only 8 states where then-candidate Donald Trump underperformed the late John McCain’s percentage margin from 8 years earlier. When Trump was up for reelection, he became the first Republican presidential nominee

J. Miles Coleman

The New Crossover Members of the House

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. — There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats. — Democrats used to win more crossover districts, but Republicans have now won more in 6 of the last 7 elections as the overall number of crossover districts has generally declined. — It is common for the opposition party in Congress to add to their roster of crossover districts in a midterm, and that’s exactly what happened in 2022, despite Republicans having a disappointing election overall. The House’s new “crossover” list With vote counts near final across the country, it appears that Republicans are on track for a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House, a mirror image of the small majority that Democrats won in 2020. When a party wins such a small House edge, there are all sorts of factors that one can reasonably argue was crucial to the outcome. One of those, undoubtedly, was the Republicans’ superior ability to win districts that did not

Kyle Kondik

Book Excerpt: The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party

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Dear Readers: What follows is an excerpt from veteran political scientist Kenneth Janda’s excellent new book, The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party, 1860-2020, which was released this week by Columbia University Press. In his book, an overview of which is presented below, Janda traces the history of the Republican Party from the Civil War to today and examines the party’s evolving national convention platforms to explain the party’s dramatic changes over its history. — The Editors I admit to Democratic partisanship, but I am more loyal to democratic government. More than fifty years of research and writing on democracy and party politics have convinced me that no nation can practice democratic government in the absence of a responsible, competitive party system. Given its constitutional structure, the United States cannot endure as a democracy without two major parties — two that compete for popular votes, accept election outcomes, and govern responsibly. Until 2020, both major parties, at different times to varying degrees, admirably fulfilled those requirements. Now one doubts whether the Republican Party — the Grand Old Party of the republic — will continue to behave like a democratic party. I wrote this book for contemporary Republican activists

Kenneth Janda

2022’s Split Ticket States

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Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election. Participants include: CBS News Face the Nation Moderator and Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Margaret Brennan;  New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman; Former U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent and Co-Anchor of This Week with George Stephanopoulos Jonathan Karl; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik; Former Virginia state Del. David Ramadan (R); and political communications veteran and commentator Tara Setmayer — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Among states that are finished voting this year, 5 chose candidates of different parties between their Senate and gubernatorial elections. This number is roughly in line with recent midterms. — Georgia is headed to a runoff, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Brian Kemp (R-GA) placed first in their respective races this month. — Arizona came close to splitting its ticket, but ultimately voted for 2 Democrats. There

J. Miles Coleman

What Happened in the States

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Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia Senate runoff, and much more. If you cannot tune in live, we also will be releasing the Twitter Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. On Wednesday, Nov. 30, the Center for Politics will hold the 24th annual American Democracy Conference from 6 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. at the Colonnade Club’s Garden Room on the Grounds of UVA. The Crystal Ball team and our Center for Politics scholars will break down what happened in 2022 and look ahead to 2024. The conference is free and open for in-person attendance with advanced registration through Eventbrite; it will also streamed here. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson recaps what happened in the various state races he has been tracking for us this cycle. We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. The Crystal Ball will be back the last week of November. — The Editors KEY POINTS

Louis Jacobson

Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle

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Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to express our deepest condolences over the murder of 3 UVA students — Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry — and the wounding of 2 others earlier this week. We also appreciate the many expressions of sympathy we have received from readers over the past several days. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense. — The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51. — But the primary importance of the runoff is electoral: Democrats could really use an extra buffer seat as they try to hang on in a couple of years. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Leans Republican Toss-up The 2024 Senate election season starts now Democrats clinching at least a 50-50 Senate majority over the weekend seemed to take the steam out of the looming Georgia Senate runoff. But that race remains vitally important — not just

Kyle Kondik

Looking Back at the 2022 Projections

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. — In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans than the Democrats. — In a political world where “lol, nothing matters” seemed to be a safe assumption in recent years, it appears that a lot of things did matter — things that should matter. How we assessed 2022 the way we did The day before the 2022 election, HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn tweeted the following: “Feel like I could selectively pull anecdotes and data to make a convincing case for a big election surprise in the D direction — and then do the very same thing for a big election surprise in the R direction.” One of us replied to the tweet, saying the following: “It’s true. I think in the end, a good R election is easier to explain/anticipate (fundamentals) than a good D one.” In a nutshell, this is the best explanation we can offer as to why we thought Republicans would do better in this election than

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Midterm 2022: Not a Referendum, But a Choice

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans enjoyed a wave-style environment in a few states — but Democrats showed impressive strength in much of the rest of the country. — The GOP’s lack of discipline in candidate selection cost them a number of races. — It remains too early to truly categorize the wild election we saw Tuesday night, with several key House and Senate races uncalled. Sorting through the midterm so far American election nights — they don’t lack for drama these days, do they? For the third time in the last four national elections, the night unfolded in a topsy-turvy and ultimately surprising way. In 2016, it was Donald Trump’s presidential victory, which went from very unlikely to very real around 9 p.m. in the east that year. In 2020, it was Trump’s narrower-than-expected loss, paired with dramatic moments like the massive underperformance for Democrats in key places like South Florida and surprise Republican showings in the House and the Senate. And last night it was an early Florida landslide for Republicans that simply was not replicated in much of the rest of the country. Over the course of the spring, summer, and fall, we wondered if this would

Kyle Kondik

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. — Read on for details — and caveats. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Republican C. Cortez Masto (D-NV) Toss-up Leans Democratic PA Open (Toomey, R) Leans Democratic Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CA-13 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Mike Levin (D, CA-49) Leans Democratic Leans Republican David Valadao (R, CA-22) Toss-up Leans Republican Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5) Leans Democratic Leans Republican IL-17 Open (Bustos, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-7) Toss-up Leans Republican Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-3 Open (Suozzi, D) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-19 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Steve

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Secretary of State and Attorney General: What to Watch for Next Week in Key Statewide Contests

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Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. This article represents his third and final effort to handicap the competitive contests for secretary of state and attorneys general across the country. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In our final pre-election handicapping of key down-ballot contests this year, we see 11 secretary of state races and 12 state attorney general races as competitive. — The races attracting the most attention nationally, understandably, are those that involve Republican nominees who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election. Whether such candidates can win this year in such presidential battleground states as Arizona and Nevada could have a big impact on the 2024 presidential race. — It remains to be seen whether these Trump-aligned candidates can ride the Republican midterm tailwind to victory, or whether GOP voters and GOP-leaning independents decide to pick and choose which Republicans they vote for this year. The key Secretary of State and AG races Rarely before this year have down-ballot races such as secretary of state and attorney general attracted so much interest from political professionals and the general public. But

Louis Jacobson

Six Days to Go

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Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will also be releasing the discussion as an episode of our Politics is Everything podcast. The podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. If you have a question you would like us to answer during our discussion, feel free to email us at [email protected]. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year. — Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts. — A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican FL-23 Open (Deutch,

Kyle Kondik

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. — In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. — In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) margin and if he will run for president than whether he’ll lose to Charlie Crist (D). Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Ron DeSantis (R-FL) Likely Republican Safe Republican Brian Kemp (R-GA) Leans Republican Likely Republican Republican governors strengthen in southeast The national battle for control of state governorships remains highly uncertain in several key states across the country. Democrats continue to be on track for a couple of fairly easy pickups in the open, blue states of Maryland and Massachusetts. Five Toss-ups remain: open, Republican-held Arizona; open, Democratic-held Oregon; and the second-term bids by Govs. Laura Kelly (D-KS), Steve Sisolak (D-NV), and Tony Evers (D-WI). All of these races, based on both private and public polling, remain close, although it’s not hard to imagine Republicans doing quite well in those races, given the broader national environment and our understanding of the

J. Miles Coleman

The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. — Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. — Democrats should be more worried about the races we have rated Leans Democratic than Republicans should be worried about those that we have rated Leans Republican. — As the 2022 battle for the Senate winds down, it is worth noting the 2024 Senate map, which gives the Republicans many opportunities to play offense and Democrats hardly any. The state of the Senate races With just under 2 weeks to go to Election Day 2022, we figured it would be worth surveying the race for control of the Senate — on the House side, we made several changes yesterday, all in the GOP’s direction. While we aren’t updating any Senate ratings today, some of the top races remain in flux. We’ll start in Pennsylvania. On Tuesday night, the Keystone State was the scene of the most highly anticipated senatorial debate of the cycle: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) faced off against

J. Miles Coleman

The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. — A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans. — 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week. — After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16. — We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mike Garcia (R, CA-27) Toss-up Leans Republican Yvette Herrell (R, NM-2) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-22 Open (Katko, R) Toss-up Leans Republican Joe Morelle (D, NY-25) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic OR-5 Open (Schrader, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings The race for the House with 2 weeks to go Way back in January, and

Kyle Kondik

The Key to the Senate: Democrats vs. Biden Approval

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. — Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance is consistent with recent history. On average, Democratic Senate incumbents are running 6.4 percentage points ahead of Biden’s current approval rating. — Democrats in 4 open seats previously held by Republicans are currently outperforming President Biden’s job approval by 3.5%. This is the highest an in-party has exceeded the president’s approval rating since at least 2006. — There are obvious signs in the data that GOP candidate quality is hampering their candidates in a number of key Senate races. — At the same time, Biden’s approval is low enough that it may be hard for some Democrats to ultimately get over the finish line. The state of play in the Senate Table 1 includes all polling in states with Senate races with results both for President Biden’s job approval and the current trial heat from mid-August through last weekend. The data in this table contains only polls that have both

Dan Guild