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Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. — One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. — Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent Democratic nominee in several Sun Belt states — many of which will be at the center of the 2024 campaign. — Donald Trump, between his two elections as the GOP nominee, turned in the best recent Republican performances in half the states — this includes much of the electorally-critical Rust Belt. Finishing up a series Concluding our series exploring the relative leans of states in presidential elections since 2000, we’ll consider the four states that make up the West Coast. About a month ago, we started with the Northeast and Greater South. Then, we considered the Midwest and Interior West. As a refresher, when we mention how a state “leans,” we are referring to its deviation from the national popular vote in a given election. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden carried 6 states by less than his popular vote margin — those 6 are the dark blue states shown

J. Miles Coleman

How the Rookie Governors are Performing So Far

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. — This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last November’s elections. — While the nine rookie governors’ approval ratings run along a spectrum from passable to great, none is in dire straits politically. A few have leveraged unified party control in their state to enact aggressive agendas, while others are building up their policy records more slowly, often because they have to work with opposition-party control of one or both legislative chambers. Assessing the new governors In a pattern we first wrote about a year ago, governors appear to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. This perception was bolstered by the findings of the most recent 50-state survey by Morning Consult, the only polling undertaken nationally on gubernatorial approval ratings. The Morning Consult findings, which were released April 19, found that every single governor in the country was above water — that is, with the

Louis Jacobson

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

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On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. 1. 2022 was another change election – but with an asterisk In his introductory chapter, Crystal Ball Editor-in-Chief Larry J. Sabato put 2022 into historical context: In the last sixteen years, 2006 to 2022, every election but one has been a change election. After a dozen years of GOP control in the House, Democrats took over Congress in 2006, then Barack Obama swept to power in 2008, ending GOP control of the White House. A backlash to Obama led to a GOP landslide for the House in 2010, and Republicans completed their takeover of Congress by capturing the Senate in 2014. Two years later, Donald Trump shocked the world in a repudiation of both Obama and his

UVA Center for Politics

NOW AVAILABLE: The Red Ripple Tells the Story of the 2022 Midterm and Looks Ahead to 2024

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The Center for Politics’s latest book — The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 — is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, The Red Ripple brings together top political journalists, analysts, and academics to examine every facet of the 2022 election and what the results will mean for the nation moving forward. Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. Chapters and contributors are: 1. Another Confounding Election, Larry J. Sabato 2. Donald Trump and the Vanishing Red Wave, Alan Abramowitz 3. 2022 Primaries: Setting the Table for November, Rhodes Cook 4. Not Much but Good Enough: The GOP’s House Takeover, Kyle Kondik 5. The Senate: Sticking with the Devils They Know, J. Miles Coleman 6. Governors and State Legislatures, Mary Frances McGowan 7. The Red Ripple of Election Denialism, Carah Ong Whaley 8. A Year of High Turnout, New Rules, and Changes

UVA Center for Politics

Citizen Forecasting for 2024 President: First Soundings

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Nearly 600 days before the election, an early citizen forecast — using voters’ expectations of likely election outcomes rather than vote intentions — estimates an even chance for a Republican or Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election. — However, while citizens estimate that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have about an even shot to emerge victorious, more voters see a pathway for a non-Trump Republican victory than for a non-Biden Democratic victory, indicating a divided and divisive Republican field. How the public forecasts 2024 Although the 2024 U.S. presidential election will not take place for about a year and a half, already speculation mounts with respect to who will win, especially since President Biden has formally announced his candidacy. In terms of scientific methods for forecasting presidential elections, public opinion polls are routinely employed, mostly to survey the vote intention of respondents in national samples. But survey respondents can tell us more than just what they intend to do — they can also tell us what they expect about the upcoming election. The use of vote expectations, as opposed to vote intentions, has come to be called Citizen Forecasting (CF), and this approach

Debra Leiter and Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection. — However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study. — A key bloc of voters who would prefer someone other than Biden or Trump skew conservative, but are also alienated by Trump’s actions around the events of Jan. 6, 2021. 2024’s decisive cross-pressured voters Joe Biden recently announced that he would seek a second term as president in the 2024 election. Biden, who is already the oldest person ever to serve in the White House, will be almost 82 years old on Election Day 2024. He would be 86 at the end of his second term in January 2029. According to recent polling, the large majority of Americans view Biden’s age as a major concern. Beyond concerns about his age, Biden enters the last two years of this first term with an approval rating that has been stuck

Alan I. Abramowitz

Race for the White House 2024: The Campaign of Four Vice Presidencies

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As Joe Biden seeks a second presidential term, his time as vice president shows how the office can be a springboard to the presidency. — Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, is learning that the vice presidency may not be an advantage in seeking a presidential nomination in the anomalous circumstances he experiences. — Biden dumping Vice President Kamala Harris never was a realistic possibility, and despite Biden’s age, the electoral impact of some voters’ misgivings regarding Harris as a possible president has probably been overstated, and her presence may benefit the Democratic ticket. — There may be factors that limit the appeal of the person in the no. 2 slot on the GOP side, whether Donald Trump is renominated or not. The 2024 campaign’s vice presidential angles Like all its predecessors, the 2024 presidential campaign will focus primarily on the competing choices for president. It is already distinctive in that regard, involving, as it does, two announced candidates who are sitting or former presidents, each of whom is a strong contender to win his party’s presidential nomination and advance to the general election. The last time both a sitting president and former president were

Joel K. Goldstein

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. — In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans. — In the Interior West, Arizona’s Republican lean has been eroding in elections since 2008 — this allowed Biden to carry it in 2020, but Democrats will also have to work to keep neighboring Nevada in their column. Presidential trends in the Midwest and Interior West This week, we’ll continue our look at how each state has leaned in presidential elections since 2000. A couple of weeks ago, we started with the Northeast and Greater South. Today, we’ll consider the Midwest and Interior West. In our final installment, which will be out within the next few weeks, we’ll conclude with the West Coast, as well as some larger observations. As a refresher, when we mention how a state “leans,” we are referring to its deviation from the national popular vote in a given election. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden carried 6 states by less than his popular vote margin

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023

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Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his own party’s presidential primary process. Despite challenges from former Gov. William Weld (R-MA) and former Rep. Joe Walsh (R, IL-8), a pair of decently-credentialed although hardly big-name rivals, Trump dominated the primary season, winning in aggregate 94% of the votes cast. That included getting 84.4% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, the traditional first-in-the-nation primary. As Table 1 makes clear, Trump’s Granite State showing looked a lot more like the performances turned in by incumbents who would be reelected later that election year than the showings of those who either declined to seek or lost reelection. Table 1: Incumbent presidential performance in New Hampshire primary, 1952-2020 Sources: CQ Press for results prior to 1972; New Hampshire Public Radio for results from 1972-present. Note that both Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 turned in weak performances in New Hampshire prior to their eventual decisions to retire, and that Gerald

Kyle Kondik

How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge

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Dear Readers: Join us at 10:30 eastern this morning for a conversation with the Honorable Mark Brzezinski, Ambassador of the United States to Poland. The ambassador will discuss the latest issues impacting Poland and the U.S. with particular emphasis on the war in Ukraine. This virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/ambassadorofpoland. And if you want to go behind the scenes of our Crystal Ball analyses and the headlines, subscribe to our Politics Is Everything podcast on Apple, Spotify, and all major platforms. In addition to discussing our Crystal Ball analyses, we talk politics and policy with experts like our Center for Politics scholars Tara Setmayer, Chris Krebs, Robert Costa, and Margaret Brennan. You can also help us by giving us a 5-star review. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair. — Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the presidential level, and while Manchin and Tester have clearly run way ahead of Democratic presidential performance in recent

Kyle Kondik

Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive. — Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small. — Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired in the low-to-mid 40s, does not spike to 50% or better before Election Day, he is likely going to have to perform well with those who only “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance. Democrats held their own with these voters in 2022. Biden versus his approval President Biden announced Tuesday that he would be seeking a second term as president. Biden’s announcement comes as his approval rating, which has been net negative in national polling ever since the aftermath of the collapse of the Afghan government in late summer 2021, has chugged along at a consistent and underwater level. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden’s approval today is 43% approve and 53% disapprove. That’s only marginally better than Donald Trump’s approval at the same time of his presidency, 41% approve/53% disapprove. Biden’s approval was clearly worse last summer than it is now

Kyle Kondik

Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South

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Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. The discussion is entitled “The Bad Ideas Fueling Today’s Attack on The Best Idea — Free Speech.” The event is free and open to the public. Tickets are available via Eventbrite, and the event will be streamed virtually at https://livestream.com/tavco/aneveningwithgeorgewill — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried 6 states — that were collectively worth 79 electoral votes — by a margin less than his national showing. In some ways, this made his electoral coalition less efficient than that of Barack Obama’s in 2012. — No state has been within 5 points of the national popular vote in each of the past 6 presidential elections, but Pennsylvania has come the closest, though it has taken on a slight GOP lean. — Aside from Virginia and Georgia, North Carolina, despite a persistent 6-point GOP lean in recent elections, seems like Democrats’ best southern

J. Miles Coleman

How the Other Half Votes: The Southwest

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Dear Readers: New Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney will discuss her time in Congress, her role on the Select Committee that investigated Jan. 6, 2021, and more in a conversation with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato on Wednesday, April 19. The conversation will run from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. at Alumni Hall’s Jefferson Ballroom on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. Tickets are free and available to the public; those who would like to attend must reserve tickets in person at the UVA Arts Box Office, which is open Tuesday-Friday from noon to 5 p.m. and is located at 109 Culbreth Road in Charlottesville. There is a two-ticket limit. The program will also be livestreamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/conversationwithlizcheney. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We’re continuing our series of looking at how the most vote-rich counties in a state vote versus those that make up the rest of the state by moving to the Southwest. — The region contains the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada, both of which are dominated by a single county that casts well north of half the statewide vote. — Both the top and bottom

Kyle Kondik

How the Other Half Votes: The East

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Dear Readers: Join us on Tuesday, April 11 for a conversation with Nguyen Quoc Dzung, ambassador of Vietnam to the United States. The ambassador will speak on the relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. and issues impacting Vietnam and Southeast Asia. The program begins at 6:30 p.m. eastern at Minor Hall, Room 125, on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public to attend with advanced registration through Eventbrite; it will also be livestreamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/ambassadorofvietnam. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After looking at the Midwest last week, we’re comparing the presidential voting trajectory of the bigger counties versus the rest of the state in a number of eastern states. — Georgia had exactly opposite top and bottom halves in 2020, with a very Republican (but stable) bottom half and Democratic-trending top half driven by changes in Atlanta. — North Carolina and Pennsylvania are mirror images on opposite sides of the political divide. — Florida’s turn toward the Republicans has been a bit more pronounced in its top half of bigger counties compared to its bottom half, making it an outlier among the states we’ve studied. — South Carolina’s

Kyle Kondik

With Protasiewicz win, Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. — Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried several Republican-leaning parts of the state. — A liberal state Supreme Court could revisit redistricting-related matters, to the benefit of Democrats, although there are a lot of moving pieces. With that in mind, we are downgrading our rating for southeastern Wisconsin’s 1st District from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change District Old Rating New Rating Bryan Steil (R, WI-1) Safe Republican Likely Republican Another 11-point win for Democrats In Wisconsin last night, Judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated former state Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly in what became a nationally-watched (and very expensive) race. Importantly, Protasiewicz will be replacing the retiring Pat Roggensack, a conservative veteran of the court — this will give the court’s liberal bloc a 4-3 majority on the bench. During the campaign, Protasiewicz was clear that, if elected, she would side with Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) over the Republican leadership in the

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Other Half Votes: The Midwest

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Dear Readers: Join us on Monday, April 3 for “Drawing the Lines: Political Cartoons in the Digital Age,” a conversation with 4 of the nation’s top political cartoonists. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the discussion with Lalo Alcaraz, winner of the 2022 Herblock Prize and two-time Pulitzer finalist; Darrin Bell, Pulitzer-winning political cartoonist and creator of the comic strip “Candorville”; Ann Telnaes, Pulitzer-winning editorial cartoonist for the Washington Post; and Matt Wuerker, Pulitzer-winning staff cartoonist and illustrator for Politico. The program begins at 6:30 p.m. eastern at Ridley Hall, Room G008, on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public to attend with advanced registration through Eventbrite; it will also be livestreamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/thepowerofpoliticalcartoons. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This piece analyzes recent presidential voting patterns in the Midwest by comparing the big counties that cast roughly half the statewide vote with the smaller counties that cast the rest of the statewide vote. — In Illinois and Minnesota, more than half of the statewide vote comes from dominant metro areas, and improvements in those areas from 2012 to 2020 allowed Democrats to maintain their strong

Kyle Kondik

What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. — Democrats often underperform in such races in Milwaukee, so that is a key place to watch. — Judicial voting patterns largely reflect voting in partisan races, but there are some key differences. Next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race Next week, Badger State voters will head to the polls to weigh in on what has been billed as the most important judicial election of the year. If Democratic-aligned Judge Janet Protasiewicz prevails, liberals will assume a 4-3 majority on the state’s highest court. If voters send Daniel Kelly, a former justice who is effectively the GOP nominee in the contest, back to the body, conservatives will retain control. From what we can tell, Protasiewicz is a favorite, although given the marginal nature of Wisconsin, we wouldn’t rule out a Kelly win. One indicator has been fundraising. Given the stakes, the race has been expensive: the two sides have combined to spend at least $26 million. Protasiewicz has

J. Miles Coleman

The Transformation of the American Electorate

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  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors — race and education — have driven the changes. — The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and have improved with white college-educated voters, while Republicans have cut deeply into Democratic support with non-college whites. — Racial and cultural issues, rather than economic ones, have fueled Republican gains with the non-college white electorate. How the electorate has changed The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 4 decades. This transformation has involved changes in both the demographic composition of the electorate and the party loyalties of major demographic groups. In this essay, I describe long-term trends in the demographic composition of the electorate and in the party loyalties of key demographic groups, focusing on two crucial demographic variables: race and education. I then examine the forces driving the striking shift in the party loyalties of the group that still makes up the largest share of the American electorate — white voters without a college degree, a group often referred to as the white working class. Demographic change

Alan I. Abramowitz

A First Look at 2024 State Supreme Court Contests

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fate of Wisconsin’s state supreme court will be decided next month. — About two-thirds of the states will have supreme court elections next year. — Key states with supreme court elections to watch in 2024 include Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio. The 2024 high court races A high-stakes state supreme court election that will determine the ideological control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is set to take place on April 4. The contest between liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz and conservative candidate Daniel Kelly, who was involved in the state GOP’s “fake elector” scheme after the 2020 presidential election, is on track to become the most expensive judicial race in history. Another key swing state, Pennsylvania, also has a state supreme court race this year to fill a currently-vacant seat previously held by late Chief Justice Max Baer, a Democrat. Democrats still have a 4-2 edge on the court, so they would retain the majority even if Republicans win the seat later this year. With growing attention being given to the role of state courts in determining political representation and other key issues, we look ahead to state supreme court elections in

Carah Ong Whaley

The Republican Presidential Primary: Still Early, but Maybe Getting Late

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. — But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else who runs essentially an afterthought. — DeSantis is polling well for a non-candidate, but we need to see how he actually performs before assuming that his support is solid. — If another candidate supplants DeSantis (or Trump), or at least vaults into their stratosphere, don’t necessarily assume it will be someone who is currently well-known now or has a lot of formal political experience. Assessing the GOP presidential primary It feels late — and also early — in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. It may be late because despite the fact that we are still nearly a year away from the actual voting, the top 2 contenders seem to be so clear. The winnowing process that so often defines the year in advance of the primary voting may have effectively already happened – it’s just that the winnowed candidates, some of whom aren’t even candidates yet, don’t know

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman