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Notes on the State of Politics: Aug. 31, 2023

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Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news. Today’s Crystal Ball features the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, with a couple of shorter items: Kyle Kondik argues that his home state of Ohio shouldn’t be looked at as a key presidential battleground despite what amounted to a big Democratic victory in a recent statewide ballot issue, and Carah Ong Whaley sounds an alarm about the threat that a newly-emerging campaign tool, Generative AI, poses amidst a campaign landscape already littered with disinformation. — The Editors Don’t expect Ohio to be a 2024 battleground In the aftermath of Ohio voters strongly rejecting an effort by state Republicans to make it harder for voters to amend the state constitution, there has been a little bit of buzz about Ohio potentially returning to the 2024 presidential battlefield. Back in 2016, I wrote a book about Ohio’s longstanding bellwether status titled The Bellwether. For decades prior to that

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

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Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office. — Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). — The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas. — In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half” counties in these states. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races (continued) Last week, we began our look at

J. Miles Coleman

Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics. — This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive. — Attacks on Donald Trump by Democrats, liberals, and mainstream media figures and even indictments by federal and state prosecutors on serious criminal charges have only served to reinforce the loyalty of Republican voters to Trump. Negative partisanship buoys Trump Less than six months before voters begin casting ballots in the first presidential caucuses and primaries, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates. According to RealClearPolitics as of Aug. 22, Trump is receiving an average of 55.9% support in national polls of Republican voters compared with 14.6% for his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Moreover, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased in recent months following indictments in multiple jurisdictions for allegedly criminal conduct including his notorious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. What is perhaps even more surprising than Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest is his

Alan I. Abramowitz

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. — In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. — In Ohio, last week’s Issue 1 ballot question, which was cast as a proxy vote on abortion rights, followed a similar pattern, roundly outperforming now-former Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D) showing in last year’s Senate race. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races Whenever we cover a major ballot issue at the Crystal Ball, we always caution that, even though some votes are framed through heavily nationalized lenses, not everything from these votes can be transferred to typical partisan races. That said, since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling last year, seven states have held ballot measures that relate, whether directly or indirectly, to abortion rights. Abortion rights advocates have come out on the winning side of all seven contests, which is something that has been widely interpreted as a promising trend for Democrats — so the urge to compare ballot issues to partisan races is strong. With that, we’ll be going through all

J. Miles Coleman

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other — states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. — Back then, we found a rough parity: Republicans squeezed out 32 excess seats, while Democrats squeezed out 28. Now, after a round of aggressive redistricting following the 2020 census, the GOP has expanded that lead to 39-24. — The biggest states for Republican excess seats are Florida, with 5.5; Texas, with 4.9; and Tennessee, with 2.4. The biggest states for excess Democratic seats are California with 6.2, Illinois with 4.0, and Massachusetts with 3.0. House overperformances by state In an era of sharp partisan polarization, it’s increasingly common to find a correlation among House, Senate, and presidential results. Still, differences exist — and those differences help explain why the Democrats control the White House but the Republicans control the House. Two years ago, we looked at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other — that is, states for which the partisan ratio in House seats

Louis Jacobson

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. — Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican in recent years. — Issue 1 seemed particularly unpopular in some usually red suburban counties, although we have to remember that ballot issues and partisan races are different and that Republicans are still in a strong position in Ohio. Dissecting Ohio’s Issue 1 There is an old saying that “pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.” It is an apt description for what happened in Ohio’s Issue 1 vote on Tuesday evening. Ohio Republicans, who already dominate state government, asked voters to essentially take away their own power by raising the threshold for voters to approve statewide constitutional amendment ballot measures from a bare 50% majority to a 60% supermajority. The proposal also would have made the signature-gathering process much more difficult in order to place such amendments in front of voters. The whole point of this process was to erect an impassable barrier in front of a looming constitutional

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

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Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020. — As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican. — This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national presidential margins in 2012 and 2020, the difference between the top and bottom halves expanded about 10 points from 2012 to 2020. — Joe Biden won 126 of the 151 top half counties, while Donald Trump won 2,548 of the remaining 2,960 counties in the bottom half. — Trump’s wins among the top half counties were concentrated among the smaller pieces of that group — Biden won all but one of the nearly 50 counties that cast 500,000 votes or more. Top half vs. bottom half at the national level Earlier this year,

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the Republican Party is heavy on beer and not lacking for wine. What we’re referring to is the political phrase “wine track vs. beer track,” a handy construction coined by the shrewd political analyst Ron Brownstein to describe fissures within presidential primary coalitions that we’ve borrowed from time to time in our own analysis. Wine track basically means white collar/college-educated, and beer track indicates blue collar/not college-educated. Trump has been stronger with the beer track than the wine track. In March, we wrote that one of the keys for any Trump alternative was to “consolidate the ‘wine track’ (college-educated) vote at least as well as Trump consolidates the ‘beer track’ (non-college) vote.” No one is coming even close to doing that at the moment — and there are signs that Trump is improving among the college-educated Republican vote. Back in late February, the GOP firm Echelon Insights showed Trump leading nationally

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The Dwindling Crossover Governorships

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House. — Still, the number of crossover governors was higher in the recent past. — While there are lots of moving pieces, including what happens in the 2024 presidential election, we could see even more of a decline in the number of crossover governors in this cycle’s gubernatorial elections. Assessing the crossover governorships New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R) announcement last week that he will not seek a fifth two-year term as the Granite State’s governor gives Democrats a key takeover target next year. But his departure might also help reduce the dwindling number of “crossover” state governors. We often note the number of House and Senate seats where the winner of the district or state is of a different party than the party that won the district or state for president in the most recent election. There is a greater share of crossover governors than crossover House and Senate members, but the

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Where People Voted in 2022 — and Where They Didn’t

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. — In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout district (NY-15 in New York City) and the highest-turnout one (MI-1 in northern Michigan). — Republicans won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the most votes (300,000 or more) while Democrats won about two-thirds of the districts that cast the fewest (less than 200,000). The huge differences in House turnout Over the years, voter turnout has often been measured in percentage terms — such as percentage of voting-age population (all U.S. residents 18 years of age and older), percentage of voting-eligible population (U.S. citizens only of legal age and who are eligible to vote), and percentage of registered voters. But this look at voter turnout in 2022 takes a different tack. The measurement used here is the total number of ballots cast for the House of Representatives by congressional district (minus blank and void ballots). The U.S. House was the only office contested in 2022 in all 50 states.

Rhodes Cook

Almanac of American Politics Excerpt: The House Districts of Brooklyn and Queens

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Dear Readers: For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. This month, the Almanac is publishing its 2024 edition, with some 2,200 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more. One of the Crystal Ball’s senior columnists, Louis Jacobson, is also a senior author of the Almanac. Jacobson has written for seven editions of the Almanac, going back to the 2000 volume. Currently, he writes the 100 state and gubernatorial chapters. For the 2024 edition — the first volume to be published after the post-2020 Census redistricting — Jacobson also worked with chief author Rich Cohen to revise every congressional district description to reflect their new lines. Below are excerpts from the chapters in the 2024 Almanac that cover seven House districts located either fully or partly in the New York City boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens. Jacobson revised these chapters, aided by a day-long visit to these boroughs in December 2022 in which he was accompanied by a tour guide well-versed in the local demographics. The visit — by foot, subway, bus, boat,

Louis Jacobson

Notes on the State of Politics: July 13, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today, we’re taking a quick look at gubernatorial races in Washington and New Hampshire, as well as a flood of losing 2022 House candidates seeking redemption in 2024. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating WA Open (Inslee, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Governors: Washington state and (possibly) New Hampshire getting more competitive? Last week, former Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) entered Washington state’s open-seat gubernatorial contest. Reichert, who represented the suburban Seattle 8th District for several terms, gives Republicans a strong name in a state that Joe Biden carried by a 58%-39% margin in 2020 and is expected to easily carry again. Under Washington state’s open primary system, all candidates run on the same primary ballot and the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a general election. With three-term Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee stepping aside, the two strongest candidates vying to replace him have been a pair of sitting statewide Democrats: state Attorney General Bob Ferguson and state Land Commissioner Hilary Franz. With Reichert in the race,

J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

A Brief History of Electoral College Bias

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. — In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. — In the postwar era, the tipping point state has frequently tracked closely with the national popular vote, although in 1948 and 2020, the tipping point state was clearly right of the nation. — The Electoral College is still likelier than not to continue to have a Republican bias in 2024, although it’s not outlandish to imagine a scenario in which there would be a Democratic bias. Tipping point states over the years A little over a month ago, we wrapped up a series that examined the relative “lean” of each state in presidential elections since 2000. One state that we paid special attention to in that series was Wisconsin. In 4 of the previous 6 presidential elections, the Badger State has been decided by less than a percentage point. OK, so Wisconsin is usually a competitive state, which isn’t very surprising — so where’s this going? Well, Wisconsin is also notable because it was the “tipping point” state

J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. — Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. — We consider a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — as the likeliest matchup, but not one that is set in stone. A first look at the 2024 Electoral College Democrats start closer to the magic number of 270 electoral votes in our initial Electoral College ratings than Republicans. But with few truly competitive states and a relatively high floor for both parties, our best guess is yet another close and competitive presidential election next year — which, if it happened, would be the sixth such instance in seven elections (with 2008 as the only real outlier). Map 1 shows these initial ratings. We are starting 260 electoral votes worth of states as at least leaning Democratic, and 235 as at least leaning Republican. The four Toss-ups are Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — the three closest states in 2020 — along with Nevada, which has voted Democratic in each of the last four presidential elections but by closer

Kyle Kondik

The 2023 and 2024 Attorney General and Secretary of State Races

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Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the results from Tuesday night’s Virginia state legislative primaries and look ahead to the closely-contested battle for control of both chambers coming up this fall. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson previews another set of key state-level races for this year and next: attorneys general and secretaries of state. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The once low-profile contests for attorney general and secretary of state have become increasingly important for driving policy outcomes in the states, particularly in setting the rules for how elections are run. — The current campaign cycle doesn’t promise quite as much drama as there was in 2022, when several key presidential battleground states played host to tight contests between Republicans aligned with former President Donald Trump and more mainstream Democrats. — For the current 2023-2024 cycle, we are starting our handicapping by assigning 18 of the 23 races to either the Safe Republican or the Safe Democratic category. Still, a number of these states

Louis Jacobson

Pumping the Brakes Post-Milligan

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain. — As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama, the subject of the ruling, and Louisiana. — It also adds to the list of potential mid-decade redistricting changes, which have happened with regularity over the past half-century. — The closely-contested nature of the House raises the stakes of each state’s map, and redistricting changes do not necessarily have to be prompted by courts. Milligan’s ramifications Landmark U.S. Supreme Court decisions can sometimes be categorized as either beginnings or endings. Take, for instance, a couple of past important decisions that at least touch on the topic of redistricting. In 1962, the court’s Baker v. Carr decision was a beginning: After decades of declining to enter what Justice Felix Frankfurter described as the “political thicket” of redistricting and reapportionment, the Supreme Court opened the door to hearing cases that argued against the malapportionment of voting districts. A couple of years later, the court’s twin decisions of Reynolds v. Sims and Wesberry

Kyle Kondik

Just How “Electable” is Trump, Anyway?

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Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome polling expert Natalie Jackson back to the Crystal Ball this week. She explores Donald Trump’s continued strength in the GOP despite a recent indictment. We also urge you to listen to our recent Politics is Everything podcast episode with Natalie, where we discussed Trump, the GOP’s polling requirements for entry into primary debates, and much more. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite a second indictment, Donald Trump remains in a strong position in the GOP presidential primary field. — Trump continues to earn majorities or near-majorities in polls, far outpacing his rivals, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. — Republicans would rather have a nominee they agree with than an electable one. Trump’s strong primary position endures As the Republican presidential primary field fills out and former President Donald Trump confronts a second indictment, an intriguing battle of numbers has emerged among GOP pollsters aligned with Trump and Florida Gov. (and now candidate) Ron DeSantis over whether Trump can win a general election against President Joe Biden. In a column for National Journal a couple of weeks ago, I discussed the

Natalie Jackson

Moving Beyond the Good Ol’ Boys Club: Recent Trends in Women’s Representation in State Legislatures

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased in recent years. However, there is still a significant gender gap in most states as women have not reached parity in representation. — The majority of women in state legislatures are Democrats. While more Republican women ran for office in 2022 than in previous years, that didn’t amount to closing the gender gap in representation. — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased more in Western and Northeastern states than in Midwestern and Southern states. This is likely due to a number of factors, including the political climate, the level of motivation and activism among women, and the availability of resources for women’s campaigns. Changes in legislatures In a special election on May 16, Democrats maintained a narrow majority in the Pennsylvania House of Delegates. As a result, the party will be able to continue to exert control over how the lower chamber of the state legislature will handle reproductive, gun, and voting rights legislation. With Republicans still holding the Pennsylvania Senate, the House could also provide an assist to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro in budget negotiations. In House District 163, Democratic candidate

Carah Ong Whaley

Notes on the State of Politics: June 7, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days — he decided against launching a presidential campaign. This comes amidst a flood of other Republicans jumping into the presidential race over the past couple of weeks, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), former Vice President Mike Pence, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND). Sununu, a critic of former President Donald Trump, said that he will instead devote his presidential campaigning toward seeing that Trump loses the primary. The four-term governor has not indicated whether he plans to seek reelection to what would be a fifth, two-year term. Only Sununu and John Lynch, a Democrat who served from 2005 to 2013, have been elected to the governorship four times in modern history. Sununu’s decision looms large over the 2023-2024 gubernatorial battlefield. If Sununu, who posted clear victories in 2018, 2020, and 2022 after an initial 2-point win in 2016, runs again, he would start as a favorite, owing to his

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Plotting the GOP’s Most Efficient Electoral College Pathways

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. — The 2024 Electoral College map will reflect the 2020 census’s reallocation of electoral votes. Using this new map, the GOP will need to flip 34 electoral votes (down from 37) to reach 269. — Using 2020 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Trump had to winning 269 electoral votes. These routes give us a template for how presidential candidates might plan their strategies for next year’s election. — Flipping Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin is likely the GOP’s best chance at winning back the presidency. But there are other viable routes to 269 as well that involve Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. The GOP’s best paths back to the presidency The 2020 presidential election was very close. It might not seem that way looking at Joe Biden’s 306 to 232 Electoral College victory, but if a few votes in a few states had swung differently, Donald Trump

Seth Moskowitz